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Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts

Friday, June 30, 2017

Farmer suicides and loan waivers - can we solve it?


Farmer suicides have brought the problems facing the farmers to the fore. Indebtedness has been highlighted as one of the dominant problems for suicides. As a corollary, governments have taken populist turn towards loan waivers. This is not the first time the farm loans have been waived. But can we do something to make it the last?

I reviewed the research on this topic and summarised them in my paper. I found there are a lot of problems facing agriculture. To put it succinctly, Indian agriculture suffers from: i) poor productivity, ii) falling water levels, iii) expensive credit, iv) a distorted market, v) many intermediaries who increase cost but do not add much value, vi) laws that stifle private investment, vii) controlled prices, viii) poor infrastructure, and ix) inappropriate research. 

These are basically symptoms of two fundamental issues with agriculture. First, farm risk management has gone wrong. Second, there is lack of coordination between various parts of agricultural value-chain. Thus, farmers do not respond to changing prices and market dynamics pro-actively. They also bear higher costs for post-harvest coordination in the value-chain like transportation, packaging, etc. 

Farmers needed to become better at risk management. They should use futures prices at the crop planning stage itself. At harvest stage a mix of contracted sales, and spot sales to can maximise realisations. They also needed more reliable availability of inputs, of credit etc. All this meant we need information – different types and large quantum of information like futures prices, weather forecasts, demand estimations, pesticide usage guidance, seed knowledge, planting knowledge, etc. AND, this information had to be available to farmer when he/she needs it.

But information is only ONE part of the problem. Farmer also needs physical inputs to reach at his remote farm. So, fertilizers should be delivered on time. Farm insurance should approved. Seeds, pesticides should reach the farmer on time. It means the value-chain partners must be available and acting reliably consistently. It meant the value-chain participants need the farming process to be visible.

There is universal agreement about risk associated with dealing with commodities. It means despite much effort many times farmers will fail. The question is then – can they fail safely? 

The corporate world has solved this issue through use of limited liability vehicles. So can we apply that to the farmers? I believe, a limited agricultural bankruptcy mechanism should act like a safety net for farmers. However, we don’t want farmers to hide personal failures within agricultural risks. Hence, we want farmers to separate personal and agricultural assets for this purpose of limiting liability.

I think we can fix these using an information system –an ERP-like solution for agriculture to help assist the farmers. Such system will reduce the coordination costs, improve information availability and increase the scale of operation allowing formal economy to step in and help farmers. With ring-fencing of risks, low cost collaboration, timely information, we can help farmers into a positive spiral of profits-investment-productivity. I sketch out the schematic of such a system called Smart Agriculture Management System (SAMS) in my paper.

This issue is important. Please read the paper, I tried to keep it as short as possible. Please make suggestions for improvement. If you think SAMS will work then do spread the word.


Buy my books "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" and "Understanding Firms".

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Reforming Indian Agriculture

Agriculture reform is one of the big successes of Gujarat Model the foundation of Narendra Modi's political success. Yet, national agricultural reform is still lagging. In a recent article, Ashok Gulati points this out with reference to fertiliser reform. That gave me some food for thought. So here are my set of key ideas for reforms for Agri-dependant population.

Farmers' problems can be summarised easily. Farmers are not sure of what to sow, the technology and funds to improve productivity are difficult to source and they do not have mechanism to maximise the cash flow from what they reap.

Improve Crop Selection: Use soil health card to determine effective crops for that land. Suggest crop selection every sowing season based on available stock of the crop, area already under cultivation and alternatives. Commodity demand and supply can be managed before sowing stage itself. It allows for less farmer/crop failures. 
  1. Give the farmer data on national area under cultivation for current year and past 5/10 years. (say area under paddy cultivation)
  2. Also give total stocks of various commodities (available stock of rice with FCI and national rice stock)
  3. Give rice national price trends for past 5/10 years. (say rice prices)
  4. Also give comparable import prices for that commodity. Create databank for allowing informed decision on grow v/s import for various crops at various land quality levels.
  5. Give suggestions of alternate crops 
  6. Using these data points let the farmer make an informed decision as to what to plant. 

Land and Asset Reforms: Clear land title implies that farmers can get easy benefits of land ownership and clear share of benefits arising from land. It allows farmers to create collateral for investing into farms. Allow clearer ownership of assets such as vehicles, animals and other agricultural implements. 

Farmer productivity support: Farm productivity improvement techniques are available at various price points. It is not necessary that most technologically advanced solutions are the best. A database of techniques and corresponding funding agencies should be made available to farmers. This is more information dissemination strategy rather than anything else.

Farmer Produce Income Maximisation:
  1. Improve farmer availability by focusing on farmer health. This improve farm-labour availability and thus improves earning potential. It also prevents crops failures because of on-availability of labour.
  2. A national farm produce market without middlemen should improve incomes for farmers. But it requires produce classification and grading mechanism. It can be done using kits.
  3. Make food processing units investment allowing the produce to be processed for easy transportation across distance and time. Thus, pulping, pickling etc. can be one type of produce revenue maximisation. Other could be farm-side cutting and packaging into easy to consume items - say pre-packaged salads made at farm itself. The whole value-chain from consumers to influencers like dieticians and  master-chefs to food factories to farmers should be leveraged.
  4. India can leap-frog the agri-produce canning/packaging style processing to directly ready to cook packaging.
  5. This activity is more valuable for non-staples like vegetables, fruits etc.

Farmer Income diversification:
  1. Augment agricultural income with horticulture, floriculture and other allied agricultural activities. Considering the necessity of creating seepage reservoirs to allow replenishment of land-water, fresh-water based fish, crops etc can be considered. 
  2. Involve farmers in agri-support transportation services, food processing services etc. 
Farmer Savings support: Improve reach of banking to rural areas. Problem for farmers is that loan availability is at high cost and savings benefits are at low rates. Even if loans are not made available a secure savings infrastructure needs to be developed for farmers. Jan Dhan is a good first step.


With these, farming should be gaining traction and agriculture can add at least 2 percentage points to India's GDP growth.




Wednesday, October 31, 2012

What is speculation?

Don Boudreaux, in a smart alecy way tries to equate oil speculators with families stocking up in anticipation of Hurricane Sandy. David Henderson adds his own two cents on the matter but to his credit asks a question about what is real speculation. The defense of speculation is classic example of misdirection. Both are notoriously guilty of this in quite a few of their posts. Though I attribute it lack of understanding of personal method rather than actual mala fide intent as Don also leans against anti-dumping duties.

Argument by misdirection
To understand the misdirection, imagine where speculation as a scale. To its leftmost end, it was a response to an event that does not affect the event itself while to its right the speculation is so large that it was an event in itself. 

People who decry speculation aim towards right and attack there. People who defend speculation aim toward left and voice traditional arguments applicable to that side. And when I say both are right, people get confused with my stance.

Understanding Speculation
Now all households stocking up en masse for calamity (such as Hurricane Sandy) will be an event in itself so this type of speculation comes somewhere closer to the middle but slightly to the left of middle.

On the extreme right, speculators intend to create the shortage and price push because of scarcity. Now the question is can we say that group of investors following technical trading strategies piling on a rising price trend are "intending to cause shortage"? The answer in most cases is no. This phenomenon falls in middle-right but not extreme right.

In rare cases speculation moves to extreme right by group-think and intellectual capture and results in harm to general public.

Regulating Speculation
Purist view is that speculation on extreme right must be banned while those at extreme left can be allowed. Now preventive regulation will start at extreme right and stop long before it reaches right of middle. However, relatively, the speculation in second part can be more justifiable than speculation in first part.



Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Curbing the exuberance in oil (& commodity) prices

The fluctuations in oil prices and commodities are creating a problem for global regulators. There is a way to make the volatility go away while allowing for liquidity. Oil prices dropped $6 as the reserves were released. If not speculation, what is this?

Reign of speculators
Physical delivery accounts for only ~3% of the trading that takes place. The rest of the trade is mere speculation or hedging. A lot of arguments are made about the 97% providing liquidity for the 3%. To me, that is too much liquidity. Its corollary, high liquidity means inflation, implies that prices are too high. My gut feel (no research backing) is that this figure should be ~20-30% if not more.

Compulsory delivery
Now if delivery is compulsory for these traders it will make it difficult for random speculators. But it is very difficult to create and enforce compulsory delivery mechanism. In some cases there is legitimate re-sale to other parties (high-seas sale). However, the principle can be deployed with adjustments. Let me explain this mechanism.

Hurdle costs
What we need is to get the investor to block a percentage of capital required for storage and an annual fee for maintenance and upkeep. This will create a hurdle costs for investors. If they are legitimate investors or genuine traders then there is no extra cost as they already have infrastructure for storage and delivery.

The capital requirement will have to be deployed for each commodity or at least specific types of commodities. e.g. grains may have a single warehouse but oil and grain will have separate investments and upkeep costs. 

Trading Caps within hurdle costs
Once the investor pays the capital for storage and maintenance, he creates a maximum allowed position that commodity or commodity group. Hedging may be allowed for 100% of the volume occupied. 

This is beneficial for producers too
Today, producers make investment looking at commodity prices and later the prices fall, it will create huge losses. Therefore, producers are reluctant to deploy capital till they are sure the high prices are result of fundamental factors rather than speculation. Hence, oil exploration that could be viable when crude is at $80 is not undertaken till crude goes above $100 and stays there for some time. In short, producers cannot trust the prices communicated by the markets. This leads to a build up of supply side pressures creating an inflationary spiral that abruptly breaks down.

In sum
Such limits should reduce the rampant speculation. This, I believe, will allow for real markets to clear at correct prices. It will ease the burden on consumers and will correctly determine the return on investment by producers.



My book "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" is available on Amazon and Kindle.