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Showing posts with label Globalization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Globalization. Show all posts

Monday, May 06, 2019

Comments on Ray Dalio's post on Monetary Policy 3 and MMT


Ray Dalio's comments are always well researched and interesting. For starters, I think, Principles for navigating Big Debt Crises is must read. (Its free PDF). His recent post on his LinkedIn blog is about Monetary Policy 3.0 and MMT

Some fundamental comments about present crisis:

  1. QE only creates a space for fiscal response: Central banks and governments alike misunderstood the role of monetary policy in the 2008 financial crisis. The crisis was different than others we have faced since Great Depression. Per my reading of Keynes (which seems to different than Keynesians and neo-Keynesians both), in such crises, the proper response has to be from fiscal side. The monetary policy merely creates space for the fiscal response or accommodates the fiscal response preventing untoward consequences. The response had to be holistic - a coordinated and sustained monetary and fiscal policy response.
  2. Fiscal policy amplification mechanism is broken: Broken may be a harsh word, we may choose "has become messy" in its place. The point is, fiscal policy needs an amplification mechanism. When government starts infrastructure spending, it needs some real value-creating sector to take it from there and start driving the economic engine. At present we do not have such "real value-creating sector" that can boost employments and wages generally. In 1980s we had tech, in 2000s we had internet, now we need something. In absence of a big driver, we need many small ones. If such capability is difficult to create in one sector it is quite difficult to create in more than one sectors too. The solution is to let inherent advantages play out.
  3. Inherent advantages are muzzled: Inherent advantages have stopped driving international trade since east asian crisis, and at a larger scale with China's entry to WTO. Instead, we have pegged exchange rates (soft/hard/overt/covert), manipulated tariff and non-tariff barriers, and, in general, non-transparent trade policy. Until that is fixed we cannot have trade based on pure competitive advantage.
  4. Small business innovations are indefensible: When people talk of China usurping Intellectual property they usually talk about submarine plans etc. But I am talking of something very basic. Check out new funding projects on kickstarter - innovative shoes, innovative bags, innovative pens, anything that takes your fancy. Just search on alibaba or just wait for few months you will see some products like those (invented by kickstarter entrepreneurs) in the market on mass scale. These products are not sold by those companies who invented them on kickstarter or such platforms. This is IP theft that hurts the most. It removes new business competitiveness right at its infancy.
  5. Trickle-up always works; trickle down some times: Monetary policy practitioners and academic economists in general prefer trickle down economics. But empirical evidence says reverse is true. Trickle-up works all the time. Thus, when there is a choice of bail out, we must lean to lower strata. (A) It is more fair and just, (B) better optics and (C) right incentives. But MAIN reason it works because it balances the bargaining power of both sides. Bail out the top and they lean on to regulation to prevent or constrict trickle down stifling the economy. Bail out the bottom and lo and behold all the incentives align beautifully.
  6. Certainty of employment and wages is the one super-indicator: The best solution to any crisis is to get certainty of employment and wages going, rest follows from that. Today we have almost full employment but it is uncertain. Wage predictability is also uncertain. That's why the lack of demand is so persistent.
  7. Interest Rates are like friction: Too much and too little friction are both bad. Sames goes for interest rates too much is bad, too little is ALSO bad.

Some comments about Monetary Policy 3:

  1. Debt financed Fiscal spending financed by QE: I don't agree with Ray Dalio that this was pursued after 2008 financial crisis. The fiscal spending was essentially going to the same group who could access the QE funds. Yes, there was fiscal deficit and increased fiscal spending and yes there was QE to finance it. But this is exactly the wrong kind of stimulus as I have written since 2009 itself.
  2. Giving $10,000 to one person Vs $100 to 100 persons Vs $1 to 10,000 people: Helicopter money is not easy to design. The behavioral response in each of three cases varies drastically.The range of outcomes possible is mind boggling.
  3. Spending conditions interfere political rights: If I am tasked to spend $10,000 can I give it to someone from my family to pay down her loan? Does that amount to spending? Should I buy something? What thing? These questions are difficult to answer, monitor and control. 
  4. A little inflation is necessary: People will spend when they can surely afford it (condition above - certainty of employment and wages) and it will get costlier tomorrow. Inflation is important, zero inflation may not be that great.

The examples of Monetary policy 3.0: 

The best part of the analysis is the historical perspective Ray Dalio gives. Sharp readers of this blog will immediately note that there are fundamental differences between the conditions in various situations described and those existing now. That is acceptable difference.

Particularly interesting is the Roosevelt response in 1930s. It still forms the basic template for solution today. However, we are at a slightly different position today than in 1930s. So we have to make more adjustments than Dalio may seem to suggest. [Dalio is NOT suggesting it - it appears simple but it is incredibly complex - politically, fiscally and economically]

In Sum

Do not understand these comments as put down of Ray Dalio (as if he cares what I think!). I admire the man because he is being honest and creating a framework to solve the crisis. Good intentions and honest efforts deserve praise - even if the guy making those efforts is one of the richest.


Thursday, March 14, 2019

World War 3 Watch 04: Indian Defense Equipment strategy

India needs to up its defense game. India is dealing with potential conflicts on two fronts. On both these fronts we have belligerent neighbors engaged in asymmetric multi-dimensional confrontation. Pakistan is more of warfare and China is more of competition. Yet, India must prepare for the potential conflict. And in this we need to improve our preparation substantially.


Airforce
Just cursory look at the Air force in the region will set us back. Pakistan Air Force generally known combat strength is about 500 aircraft. China is about 1600 aircraft. India is about 600. While the numbers are not exactly a way to differentiate - but considering the length of border and our defense requirement India should aim for 2000 combat plane air force.

This means HAL cannot produce 16 aircraft per year. It has to produce 16 aircraft per month. Using private participation we need to improve this number quickly. Second, it appears we need full Rafale deal AND a F16 manufacturing line at the same time.

IAF should also think of getting larger number of combat drones. These drones should be able to manage to fly with manned aircraft. This one manned aircraft (M) -coupled with around 10 drones (D) or more. Thus one mission unit with M-D combination. Then you can add mission units with xM-yD.

These mission units will need to collaborate and coordinate with share intel. That will require a robust ICT interface.

Airforce needs support from ground and space in the form of missiles and information. We should develop mechanism for coordinated launch of missiles controlled by the aircraft pilot herself. We can augment it with coordinator based ground support too.


Army
The future soldier will be an augmented information soldier. 

We need to up our game in terms of equipping the soldier with top-class equipment. AK-203 is a step in the right direction. But we need to lighten the soldier and get every soldier a robo-buddy. The buddies could be in multiple form - carrier mules, terrain mapping drones, communication bots and combat drones (sniper buddy). For this we need very intense development in robotics and again the ICT component will also play a role.

We should experiment with augmenting the soldiers with exoskeletons and other techniques to improve battleground performance.

Air-cover has been neglected part of the army. Apache helicopters in air support is essential. 


Navy
Future of navy is stealth platforms. As the US stealth ship Zumwalt goes for a maiden mission, China is developing aircraft carrier buster missiles. The Chinese missiles are hyper-sonic and thus almost impossible to intercept. In this context any above surface ship will find it difficult to beat the defenses. Hence reliance of submarine platforms should be increased.

Sub-marine drone tech is actually quite interesting. It can be used on sink-and-forget  wait mode. Thus we should be able to plant and move around many depth assets on wait and watch basis. Without humans on board this is (a) easier and (b) safer. It also improves the counter-strike and defense capability. These drones should be easy to manufacture in large numbers and low cost. These drones need not be large they can simply be attachments to ammunition that can help the ammunition to navigate and activate.

Deep sea surveillance and AGAIN ICT is also going to be critical.

So Navy must develop platforms but also develop choking -technologies for anti-ship systems.


Space wars
Space is important front for information wars. The satellites form critical part of the ICT infrastructure we need to deploy across the forces.

Satellites should be able to perform twin functions - jamming enemy satellites and keeping ICT infrastructure working for our forces.

The ability to quickly and rapidly restore downed satellites is very important. We should also explore possibility of smaller satellites that can last only for 5/6 months and then disintegrate. The smaller the satellite the costlier it is to destroy. Also because of size, you can build for redundancy. It is also possible to launch 100 satellites in one launch. These satellites are more relevant for theater coverage rather than country coverage.


Cyber war
Most of modern warfare is quite destructive and hence preventive techniques are more important than remedial measures.Cyber war allows for information and processing delays in enemy retaliation and gives us additional time and information to respond better.

Many times it is better for cyber initiatives to operate in bleeding mode than in crippling mode. Thus, it is better for cyber initiatives to delay the enemy communication rather than cripple it. Thus introducing delays and errors is better than crippling the infrastructure for short time. These cyber initiatives can also provide advanced information about enemy maneuvers. The aim is to destroy combat assets of the enemy.




Indian Foreign Policy

Since last month's attack on Indian Security forces in Pulwama by the Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist group, I have been thinking about the changes required in the national policy. Today we get the news that China once again blocked the proposal to declare Masood Azhar, the leader of JeM as a terrorist. In light of these developments here are some thoughts about Indian policy. 

Note: Many sound quite conflicting but that is the reality. I miss Narasimha Rao.

With Israel
India MUST announce a proper strategic deal with Israel including multi-faceted cooperation including defense, technology, agriculture, business, banking etc. 
We must improve integration with its defense network. A Multi-track developments must take precedence -
    1. Designed in Israel, made in India, (avionics and defense info-tech subsystems)
    2. Jointly designed and made by Israel and India,  (missile, interception & drone tech)
    3. Designed in India and made for Israel - (aircraft and other equipment)
    4. Joint Cyber warfare development cell.
    5. We should have joint training - allowing Israeli forces to train in various conditions and set up training with them in Israel too.
We should aim for Agriculture and water management technology collaboration. We should explore policies that should allow Israel-India manufacturing companies to go global - compete across the world. We need to have 3 such companies be global brands like say ikea.


With Russia
India MUST announce a proper strategic defense deal with Russia as well. Russia is a long-term partner and we must improve the interaction with Russia. We must engage with Russians for heavy equipment - fighter aircraft, ships and submarine.  We should further the missile development cooperation and aim for joint technology development in defense space.

Economically, we have to help Russia ween itself from Chinese dependence. Russia should be able to stall and deny China without a huge economic cost.


With United States
That India and US are not friends is first the fault of India and then the fault of US. Unfortunately, today there a little bit of mistrust still left. 
India MUST have strategic partnership with US and must join the Quad.
    1. This will include setting up bases
    2. We must join the information sharing treaty with US
    3. We must have/develop defense ICT that is interoperable one with US. 
    4. We need cyber defense cooperation with Quad.
    5. We need to step-up and take our responsibility in Indo-Pacific. 
    6. We also need deeper collaboration and joint exercises between US and Indian defense forces.

With Japan
India must enhance partnership with Japan on following fronts:
    1. Fighter aircraft development
    2. Ship-building tech.
    3. New Drone tech
 With Japan, India must set up ventures to develop infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. Japan has the capital and technology and India will need to give its man-power.


France
In general, it is not well-understood that France has been a long-standing defense ally of India since independence. More than Britain which somehow finds more sympathy than France. India and France need to improve the cooperation on defense as well as non-defense sectors.  We need to improve the status of France in the Indian economic and defense scheme.


South East Asia/ Asean / Asutralia New Zealand
We have to play very pro-active role in this region. We can work on the food side trying to reduce the cost of food and other goods in this part of the world.


About Pakistan
Pakistan will continue to remain an irritant unless we take proactive effort to eliminate the terrorist setup. It can be eliminated by imposing very high economic costs on the Pakistani Army. To this end, India needs to be part of Afghanistan solution. If US cedes Afghanistan to Taliban or to Pakistani Army backed group, we will soon have trouble on Indian soil.


Working in Middle East
India must UNDERSTAND and ACT on the fact that we are Hindu majority country AND we are the largest democracy of Muslim at once. India must use this to influence a lot of things in the Islamic sphere and give it a better direction. We must champion the reforms taken up by other middle eastern countries and overcome the regressive developments taking place. 
Africa
India should be able to collaborate with Africa much better than any other country. We should provide the institutional support and help African companies develop as suppliers to India. Japan and other countries will surely help us in this process. We have to showcase a credible alternative to Belt and Road but with good clean reformist credentials.











Thursday, September 13, 2018

Oil trade routes and India's geo-political advantage


Here is a picture about oil trade routesfrom Geopolitical futures:



You can see the Geo-political importance of India. India has access choke-points carrying about 40 million barrels per day - 4X flow at all other choke points put together. Guarded by a decent navy that can go against the best.

You will realise why China is interested in this area and interested in encircling India with string of pearls. More so if you have read Daniel Yergins The Prize. (If not read it now for understanding of oil industry).

For more details of balance of naval presence in the Indo-Pacific region look at the map below:
Naval Bases in Indo-Pacific - Rahul Deodhar (data from public sources)

These maps are important tools to understand Geo-politics and George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures has a great compilation. Head over there to check it out.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Can only US markets go higher in the face of tariffs and other trade headwinds?

In one word - NO!

One the trade front, the US needs other countries (suppliers) as much  as other countries need US as a consumer No. 1. Yet, the consumption burden falls excessively on the US. That too is not sustainable. In the natural course of things this burden should gradually pare down. This natural process was impeded by interventions in currency and trade policy by (a) East Asian economies following 1997 crises and (b) Japan first then China. 

In the first case, the impact is benign as the comparative sizes of the economies in South East Asia and US/UK etc is too big. 

The second case turned out to be problematic, though bit less, in case of Japan. Absent the computer and technology revolution, US would be in same position as today as in post-Japanese growth phase. At the time when the US jobs were diminishing in the face of Japanese competition and trade, Tech was already cooking in the oven. The massive productivity boom unleashed by tech was supported by job growth in new sectors. These sectors pulled decent quantum of current workforce and modified the training profile of upcoming workforce.

Today, there seems to be no new sector that is vigorously attracting the current workforce into itself. There are two reasons for this. First, the speed of Chinese growth is dramatically higher than Japanese growth. What Japan achieved between 1945-1980, China achieved between 1980-2000. Second, Japan started at the time of man-power constraint. China started gaining traction when manpower was becoming surplus. Therefore, job "protection" in developed world has become important.

The trade fears can be allayed / calmed if there is another sector that can create as many jobs for the profile of workforce that exists today and about 20 years from now. Absent that, growth will require  fighting for a larger share in a diminishing pie - a potent trigger for conflict.  The war can be won by biggest bully if he is alone. But when there are a few contenders it takes time to settle the pecking order. Many skirmishes (I mean trade & currency conflicts) need to happen to settle that order. For strategy suggestions we can look at how pecking order is established in prisons. The strategies will be same the tools will be sophisticated. 

Thus, US cannot do trade wars alone. US needs its own "gang". That gang was NATO, NAFTA and these days the "Quad".  The Stock markets of one gang may rise if the gangs are tighter) and they may decouple from other gang. But only US markets rallying is not possible.

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Tax as a destabilising force - Border Adjustment Tax

John Mauldin, a prolific commentator, is well connected to the Republican establishment. He has recently concluded a three-part series titled Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly on the coming tax reform in the US. The parts can be found here - first, second and third. It is a must read. 

The US is trying to simplify tax structures. This, by itself, is nothing new. All the countries have been trying since time immemorial to simplify tax codes. Surprisingly, they keep getting more complicated. I do not think "simplify" means what you think it means. But this time, it does seem simpler. Let us not jump the gun, it is still early days. Let the bureaucrats have a go at it and it will come out as complicated as it has ever been. Nevertheless, the intent seems to be right.

The disturbing part is the way BAT or Border Adjustment Tax is supposed to work. John paints a pretty grim picture and rightly so of the adverse consequences of ill-thought out Border adjustment tax. Mauldin and his friend Charles Gave, both seem to suggest that this move will disturb the present equilibrium. Other republicans do not think so. But there is merit in Mauldin-Gave arguments.

And then I read the US intelligence’s ‘Global Trends, Paradox of Progress’ report. That is another bleak report. What is disturbing is that the world seems to be in a precarious balance at present and 5 years out. Some situations in next 5 years as highlighted by the report:



Now the timing of BAT by Trump has become exceptionally crucial. At times in history you get amplified impact because historically small acts happened at unstable times. Here we are faced with a big act at unstable point. In effect, we are beholden to Trump's good sense, pragmatism and sense of leadership.

Interesting times these.

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Why are taxes so complicated?

Apple’s skirmishes with the taxman have brought the issue of taxes to the fore again. It all started with Warren Buffet’s assertion that he paid less tax than his secretary. We wondered what magic formula achieved that!

What is wrong with taxes? Why don’t we understand what is going on? Many reasons but mainly because tax is complicated — too damn complicated. I haven’t met a person who can mentally calculate his or her taxes even when they know their income precisely — not even with a calculator. These calculations aren’t even in the ballpark. So why is tax so complicated? Politicians and taxmen alike tend to confuse the debate with many terms and jargon.

What is a Tax?
Tax is actually a charge paid to the government for the services it renders — i.e. maintaining law and order, national security and general governance to cover the costs for that (such as salaries of army, police, judiciary, bureaucracy etc). It is also a source of finance for government investments say in infrastructure (think highways, dams, railways, space program etc). Taxes also pay for government expenditure on other things such as bailouts, promotion of job-creating industries, pensions, healthcare etc.

To pay for all these activities, government formulates a “tax strategy”. Tax strategy is combination of various taxes imposed on the public (citizens and non-citizen residents) to make up its income. It generally combines Direct and Indirect taxes, income and expenditure taxes etc. It may also include tariffs, duties, cess and fees under many different names.

Direct versus Indirect Taxes
Now government can take the taxes in two ways. Direct taxes are taxes those directly collected by the Government like, say, income tax etc. Indirect taxes are levied on the manufacturers or employers and these are then passed on to the citizens.

The direct and indirect taxes are important because of ease of collection. Indirect taxes are easier to collect but increase the transaction costs in the economy. Thus, if there are excise duties across the value chain, then such products have to be that much more competitive with respect to other global products just because of tax accounting.

Income Tax and Expenditure Tax
Government has at its hand two types of taxes. It can tax income at the hands of the earner. It can tax the consumer at the time of consumption. Notice that the timing the taxes are collected is different. That has an important bearing on this discussion. Between receipt of income and actual consumption is a quantum of time that can be controlled by the citizen. This has important bearing on the nature of tax government wants to impose.

When recessions strike the government is required to give a fiscal stimulus. When the tax backing such investment can be collected is now left to the consumer. After recessions typically, the consumers are reluctant to spend thus delaying the tax collection and putting government commitments to lenders at risk. An income tax, however, comes in as soon as income recovers. That used to create a big problem for the governments. However, with present technology and statistical analysis, governments need not have these

Expenditure tax has its advantages. It penalises those who consume more as against those who consume less. The argument against expenditure taxes is that incomes are higher than expenditures and thus tax collection is more. The counter argument is that expenditure tax leads people to invest rather than consume.

Tariffs, duties, cess and other fees
All these items are basically a charge on specified group of persons (natural persons i.e. people or legal persons i.e. corporations). These charges are meant to nullify some anomalies arising out of policies. Thus, if tax on cars is 30% on price of car, then if you import the car then you will also have to pay 30% “import duty” to bring you inline with those buying locally.


Why are taxes so complicated?
There are three sources of complexities in taxes. First is that tax law itself is complicated. Secondly, the constitution of the country creates complications that show up as complexity in taxes. Third type of complexity is result of Governments using tax laws and bending constitutional mandates to further their public policy.

Complications of Tax law
When you read the tax law, it is usually in two parts — tax rates and “interventions”. Interventions generally take the form of exemptions,deductions and tax breaks.

First part deals with tax rates. Tax rates by themselves may be different. Income tax rates are decided on slabs. For example, income below $20,000 may not be taxable, between 20,001 to 50,000 be taxed at 10%, between 50,001 to 100,000 be taxed at 15% and so on. It is easy to understand that the higher the tax exempt income, higher the tax rate others have to bear.

Exemptions are incomes or expenditures by law exempted from tax. Thus, income from renting a housing may be exempt. So when computing your taxable income, you don’t include the rent in it.

Deductions are amounts you invest in certain schemes that you can deduct from your taxable income. Thus, amount invested in pension plans may be deducted from your taxable income before tax is computed.

Then there is something called Tax-break. These are most notorious of all interventions. By this mechanism certain persons (natural or legal) can be made exempt from paying taxes if they satisfy certain conditions.

If taxes seem complex by now wait till you hear of this new type of complexity.

Constitutional complexity
The constitution in most countries grants the right to the government to levy tax. Now no country has one government, there are at least three sets of government in any country — city level, state level and national government. Constitution has granted each of them some tax they can levy. It is different for different countries but the principle is the same. These taxes taken together result in massive compliance exercise that is both time consuming and complex.

Governments overreach when they want to increase tax collection. So they invent some other thing to add to the tax burden adding to complexity. For example, if state or city government can tax land, national government may impose environmental cess on those lands which are not tree covered. It may be so that environmental policy is with national government, and land taxes with city government but now national government has got its pound of flesh out of land taxes.

Tax as an instrument of public policy
Governments, with all nice intentions, tend use taxes to further their public policy aims. For example, to promote job growth, they may want to give tax exemptions to various industries, tax breaks, they decide what the level of exemptions — what incomes are exempt from taxes. Or, say when they want to support home buying, then the government may give you deductions if you buy a house and lighten your tax burden. All these things combined make the tax calculations too complicated. These interventions are nothing but Government trying to influence society — they are using tax as instrument of public policy. It is wrong for many reasons.

The concessions given to further public policy have two ill effects. Firstly, they do not convey transparently what benefits were given to whom and thus it is underhanded. Secondly, they are wasteful as they cannot be pin-pointed to deserving persons. There remain, deliberately or not, various loopholes that creep into the legal draft of the law when it does come out. US tax code is rife with instances where industries on one side of the road has received tax-break while that on other side hasn’t.

I once heard a (fictional I think) story about Britain. In the 90s it was noticed that more Brits preferred to stay single than to marry. Naturally, the cable channels were quick to host debate shows on declining moralities of the Brits. It was then discovered that despite not marrying, Brits tend to stay with same partners. Quickly the hollow debates went after religion values of marriage etc. Ultimately it was discovered that this so-called moral decline was because of an innocuous clause in the tax code which imposed additional tax on married couples than two single adults. Talk of unintended consequences!

If government wants to subsidise certain industry let it do it by direct transfers or refunds. The problem with this argument is that citizens themselves do not accept it because government is quick to accept money but very lethargic when it comes to a refund. In corrupt countries there are palms to grease — if you are in India you have to grease the entire bureaucratic system and bureaucrat themselves.

The resulting of Complexities
The complexities in Tax system are not the only problem. They are genesis of the worse problems.
Individuals v/s corporates

There is a fundamental flaw in the tax system that treats income tax of individuals and corporates differently. The tax system believes that income of the corporation is its profits which is revenue less costs (crudely). In case of individual no consideration is given to expenses. Thus individual is taxed on revenues while corporates are taxed on profits. This difference has to go away. Now to be fair, individual tax rate is lower than corporate tax rate for precisely this reason. Yet, this difference coupled with tax avoidance mechanisms and other invented devices contribute heavily to discrepancy between the individual who cannot game the tax system and the corporate which can.

Tax avoidance
When the underlying system is complex, private parties more than government agencies are able to take advantage of the system. In the 2008 financial crisis, the average paying rating agencies were not competent enough to see through the complexities created by highly-paid bankers. Same logic holds for tax too.

With loopholes this wide, rich people with boundless ingenuity come up with schemes that help them avoid taxes. So people invest more in housing if rents are tax free. Such tax avoidance has created an industry of accountants whose only job is to avoid taxes. It is also in the interest of these accountants to keep tax codes unnecessarily complex.

When tax avoidance increases the burden falls on the poor who are ill-equipped to handle the complexities of taxes.

Transfer pricing — The bigger problem Tax evasion
One of the worst ways of evading taxes is by using transfer pricing technique. Let us imagine I make shirts under my company X Inc. and it costs be $50 to make the shirt which retails for $100. But I am based in a country where tax rate is 20%. So I make incorporate a different company X Ireland Inc. where tax rate is 1%. So X Inc. sells all the shirts to X Ireland Inc. at $51. And I pay tax on $1 at 20% i.e. 20 cents. Then X Ireland Inc. sells the shirts at $100 world wide. I pay 1% on $49 profit i.e. 49 cents. So my total liability is 49+20 = 69 cents. If I was doing business completely from my home country I would have to pay 20% of $50 i.e. $10 in taxes. This $9.31 is deemed to be legitimately avoided. I think not! This is tax evasion not tax avoidance. A small business cannot compete with this company.

This transfer pricing game is played at various levels. Corporates play countries v/s countries, pit state v/s state and city v/s city to extract maximum benefit. This benefits are solicited through industry bodies, professional institutes and other mechanisms of lobbying. Eventually tax payers are paying for this too.

Money laundering
The Global cooperation in taxes was brought about because of money laundering. All money laundering channels were discovered and they remain operational because of their use in tax avoidance / tax evasion. These networks have now been used to finance terror network which brought them into focus.

Taxes need urgent global reform
We need a simpler tax system that is easy to understand and easier to comply with. The complexities need to be resolved. Most of the countries in the world have a unified expenditure tax system (GST it is usually called). Such a system should be created for all taxes. We need to do away with exemptions, deductions and tax-breaks. The government aid, if necessary, should be given directly by cash transfer.

Second, we need international cooperation with respect to tax regimes. It is in the interest of all the countries of the world that tax is paid to the government to which it is due. There are efforts being put together to track and prosecute tax evasion through Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes. This is a welcome initiative, though too many bureaucrats are discomforting. I hope it does not end up complicating the Taxes rather than simplifying and checking evasion.

If tax is a necessary evil, it is unnecessarily complex convoluted evil. May the Founding fathers should have put in a fundamental right that taxes shall be simple to understand and easy to compute and pay. Taxes should be simple and straight-forward. A healthy global tax system will empower our governments.

Monday, August 29, 2016

Dollar, the International Currency system and the Ghosts of Connally

US Dollar took over as the world currency thanks to Bretton Woods 1944 at the end of the World War II. With the world facing tremendous calamity, a sensible system was put in place, incorporating the learnings from the failures of Treaty of Versailies.

Begining its inception, the European states set out on a development spree that has since remained unmatched. Even the rise of China in peacetime does not match the speed and quality of development. But with development, there appeared cracks in the Bretton Woods system. Well, not exactly the Bretton Woods system - but the currency system. There appeared an fundamental incompatibility between the unique construction of US Dollar and the structure of Bretton Woods.

The Construct of US Dollar
US Dollar created in the aftermath of American struggle for independance was gold backed as was required to be able to trade in the global system. At the early stage, US Dollar was indeed made out of gold-silver mix (1:15) and each dollar was backed by 1.60gm of gold. The gold-silver ratio was reduced to 1:16 thereby devaluing the gold equivalence which now came to 1.5gm gold for each dollar. The new coins were made by gold-silver mix so exact devaluation can be debated. However, the weights of the coins continued to be reduced over the 19th century.

This bimetallism had to be gradually dropped since the silver coin weights were reduced and later substantial silver deposits were discovered leading to wild price fluctuations. Thus US Dollar came to exclusive gold standard. The formal gold standard act backed the Dollar with 1.67gms of Gold - a smaller devaluation by itself.

Note that at the time, Pound Sterling was the dominant currency and it was exclusively backed by gold. The Pound also fluctuated in its gold peg till early 19th century where the British put in place the gold standard. Their wide-spread empire and british respect for the value of the pound contract meant it quickly became global currency. US Dollar was emulating this precedent. 

In this process the pegs to the gold were altered by World War I and subsequently in 1931 Britain gave up the Gold Standard, leaving American Dollar as strong contender for world currency. All this was formalized in 1944 at Bretton Woods.

The Second part of Bretton Woods Agreement
At Bretton Woods it was also agreed that exchange rates between some dominant currencies would be pegged to the US Dollar and they were backed by Gold. With such a policy in place, European countries started on most ambitious reconstruction plan. This was supposed to be an opportunity for the American companies and it was. But it also created many European companies who became competitive vis-a-vis their american counterparts and started a cross-flow of trade and commerce. In the process, more US Dollars were created and soon there were too many and not enough gold to back it. 

This fact was noticed by the trading community who started bidding up the Gold prices prompting John Connally to push for abandoning the gold standard. He said later "My philosophy is that all foreigners are out to screw us and it’s our job to screw them first."

The Fiat-Dollar era  
The Fiat Dollar continued its run as the global currency thanks to burgeoning US population, US growth and demand from US markets. International trade soon became thoroughly Dollarized. The dollar-peg concept went from Europe to Japan. The latest in that phase came the dollar-peg by East Asian Tigers and mainly China. These countries vountarily gave up their freedom to conduct their monetary policy - depending on prudence of the US FED. This system then created today's unique problems.

Now with US being the defacto currency in the world, US lost its ability to devalue. Faced with this situation, US followed what John Connally famously said "The dollar is our currency and it is your problem". It printed and printed and printed. And so did everyone else - by default. In effect we do not see US Dollar being devalued - the point gold bugs keep making. Without the devaluation US is not getting the turbo-boost to kick start the growth leading many to call the other countries' monetary policy as "predatory". This problem is a corollary of the famous "Impossible Trinity" or "Mundell-Fleming Trilemma".

What should be the decent international currency system?
It is now clear that monetary policy independance can be given up volantrily and also taken away by coordinated action. The solution many propose is to go back to Gold standard - which may be a good intermediate arrangement - but not a good long term arrangement. A better idea is to go for a two-level currency system. SDR may be a good starting point - but SDR's may not give us the true global currency we need.

The global currency and relatively-fixed (stable) peg to global currency could be a good system. It will leave the monetary policy freedom with national central banks and yet keep the system stable most of the time.

Readings

  1. Volcker's FT Alphaville interview
  2. Economist on Mundell-Fleming Trilemma
  3. Yanis Varoufakis - And the weak shall suffer what they must. (book)


Friday, August 26, 2016

Capitalism V Democracy - Yanis Varoufakis

Yesterday, I saw the TED talk by Yanis Varoufakis (linked below) titled Capitalism will eat democracy: unless we speak up. It is quite a watch so I embed it here.

His suggestion is that we have to choose between a Matrix like dystopia v/s a Star Trek like utopia. The primary observation is that unbridled capitalism will ensure that the democracy works for the super rich but not for the poor. I agree with him as an assessment of the present state of affairs. But that does not cover the issue fully.

Capitalism can eat democracy but what about the reverse?
While it is true that democracy cannot eat up capitalism, politicians can. We have it happening right now - in India, China, Russia etc. These politicians become businessmen and plunder the country. This is no true politics but predatory politics can impair the la and order machinery to quickly discend into anarchy.

Crony capitalism v servile democracy v servile capitalism
Crony capitalism is a misnomer. A crony means friend - sort of an equal. But this is not a relationship between equals.

The government officers and politicians are eager to serve the capitalist. When chairman or office bearers of NRA speak they listen - not both sides listen but enough people on both sides listen. If Zuckerberg or Paige or Dimon or Buffet were to say something both parties will listen. I read somewhere that 80% of 2013 US presidential election funding was made by 150 odd individuals. Please tell me their views carry the same weight as mine. This is servile democracy. Yanis Varoufakis talked about Larry Summers (in other talk in Austin) telling him that if he becomes an insider then he will be given magical things. That is servile democracy not crony capitalism. This is a rich man trying to train a dog with dog biscuits.

There is other side to this too. In India businessmen are servile and politicians are the lord-masters. Things have changed - but not too much. It is easy to scuttle a truly new challenger to established business houses. If you take the paper spending on infrastruture - India can have better infrastructure than the very best countries in Europe - may be twice over. This is servile capitalism. There are whole networks that have come up around these politicians to create extortionist "business models".

Where will the fight between capitalism and democracy lead us is anybody's guess! But one thing is clear.

Capitalism and Democracy as competing systems
Capitalism and democracy are said to be collaborating or complementing systems. But we should start thinking of capitalism (more specifically markets) and democracy (specifically government) as both competing and complementing systems together. They both allow the masses to exercise their opinions. Marktes allows the individual to exercise it through buying i.e. through markets, democracy allows him to exercise it by voting in a government.

Now buying is something we do almost every day. Thus, we this part of the system is more evolved, sensitive. This system is also keenly improving itself to make sure the customer preferences are communicated to the top - it is thus more efficient than the political system. But let us remember they can be inefficient too.

The political system works like a broken market system. Here the opinion or choice of majority is forced on everyone. Imagine if markets worked like democracy - everyone may be forced to wear XXL size blue man shirt (coz majority favours it). 

By now you must think that they operate in different spheres and so it is not a problem. But it is! Notice that the burden on government to make itself more palatable to all of its citizens not just the majority is quite high. It is higher than the burden on market to service all types of demand. That is because there is an alternative when market fails to understand the opinion of minority - some niche player can fill it. In case of government - there is no niche player alternative. Therefore, Government must be held accountable more than the capitalist. And it must uphold the rule of lawso as to ensure capitalism is working smoothly.

Just think - marxism is actually a response to servile politics impairing the demands of working class (the proletarait) by the capitalist (bourgeoisie) who were friends of politicians/rulers. Then the Soveit collapse was actually a response to the politicians exploiting the political system to their economic advantage. In some way reverse of the first wave.

So the point is...
We need a mechanism to ensure the bargaining power between capitalism and democracy is maintained. Without such a mechanism we may end up in some trap or the other.


The ideas expressed in this post first appeared in my book  Subverting Capitalism and Democracy. Buy my books "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" and "Understanding Firms". 




Thursday, August 18, 2016

Should banks create money?

Bloomberg has a post about centralizing money supply - whole money, as they call it. It is not a very good idea. This is not the first time such suggestions have come up. As mentioned in the article, Irving Fisher first proposed a similar plan in the wake of the great depression. Since then many have proposed this idea but not many understand money creation.

Taxonomy of centralized money creation idea
The money creation ideas are varied:
  1. Gold money: This is natural money creation. No one has any control over the money creation. Previously, gold, silver, diamonds, precious stones and other valuables (and sometimes sea shells too) were used. Many serendipitous discoveries of valuables created havoc with the money supply. Discovery of Potosi in South America and thereafter further discoveries of gold and silver had the effect of expanding Spanish money supply. 
      1. Not under any control: Neither governments nor banks, no one has any control over the money creation process.
      2. But Non-Arbitrary: It depends on the amount of gold you have. If you want more gold, you better import more gold by giving some valuable service to the other countries  who have gold. Over time as the total amount of gold available starts reducing you need to offer more and more to the countries that have gold.
      3. Though subject to Nature: If by chance you discover a gold mine, you will be filthy rich, though if you discover too much then it may unleash inflation. Spain is believed to have faced such inflation on the discovery of silver mines in the South American colonies.
      4. Deflationary and restrictive: As economic activity grows it becomes too high compared to the total amount of gold available to back it. Thus it tends to slow the economic growth pace. (Don't know if that is good or bad).
      5. Favours status quo, old money and advantageous to miserly: Since total value of gold you have increases with time, people tend to postpone purchases and hold on to gold. Spending happens when absolutely necessary.
      6. Exploitation and Theft prone: A doctor can charge atrocious fees from a rich person because of bargaining power equations. Gold can also be stolen. Stealing credit cards is less useful.
  2. Gold-backed money: Introduced to circumvent the deflationary gold currency, countries peg the value of their currency to the gold they can back it with. When people talk of gold standard they are referring to this type of money creation. 
    1. Partly Government controlled: Government issues currency and states the total amount of gold they back it with. So a gold-to-dollar exchange rate is established. The government can improve its reserves and thus improve money creation. 
    2. Non-arbitrary: In its pure form it is non-arbitrary and similar to gold-money.
    3. Not purely nature driven but subject to shocks: Since the government has control over the amount of money and amount of gold, the money creation is not as whimsical as simply discovering a gold mountain. Governments can reset the exchange rate to compensate for some changes. But arbitrary government intervention results in shocks and disruptions.
    4. Mostly deflationary: Governments cannot measure economic activity easily (yes GDP calculations are guess-work and there is no Santa Claus just in case you were wondering). That leaves money creation open to political whims and fancies and invites tampering of measurement of the economic health. Mostly governments are slow to acknowledge the real growth in economy since it is always backward looking. It realises the growth till the growth results in deflationary pressures then increases money supply and causes a spike.
    5. Perception of money losing value as government reset gold rate: As total amount of product and services of value in the economy rise more than amount of gold to back it up, the government is forced to alter the gold-dollar exchange rate downward leading to people feeling that each dollar is worth lesser in terms of gold though purchasing power may be higher.
  3. Government-created money: This is non-gold standard money. Simply speaking the government issues money and backs it with a promise. This is what people wrongly believe is the current regime. 
    1. Full government control: The government has effective control over the process. This is a mixed bag. It depends on the government. 
    2. Some central bank control: The exact control depends on how money is created, is it by using government bonds then bought to a certain extent by central banks or some other way (simply printing).
    3. Depends on confidence in Government: Prudent governments enjoy advantages but if you are Zimbabwe then you will end up in trouble.
    4. Inflation/deflation depends on policy: If a government print too much then it stokes inflation and too little results in deflation. Prudently executed (Milton Friedman's about 3% money supply growth) works fine.
    5. Value of money depends on inflation: If the government is able to deal with money creation effectively then a mild inflation - say 2% may result. There is not too much loss in value and it can be notices only over long time frames when quality of life changes are also noticeable.
  4. Money created by banks: Mostly commercial banks create money by giving loans. These loans do not exist as money. This is the most misunderstood money creation mechanism. It is distributed money creation, without extreme control. Bankers and regulators forget that its success depends on devising proper incentives. 
    1. Less government control:No country uses this method exclusively. Both Government-created and bank-created money is deployed. Thus there is always government control of some sort. Also since government is also a borrower (a big one at that), it has control.
    2. Part central bank control: Central bank exercises additional kind of controls in this mechanism. First, it can partner with government in its money creation process by buying government bonds etc. Second, it controls the lending to the banks and thus influences at what levels of risk do banks create money. The key word is influences and not dictates. Thus this process is often likened to "pushing at a string" (which is difficult, you can pull at a string pushing does nothing unless there is pulling at other end by the banks).
    3. Control to banks: In this scenario, Banks can ALSO determine whether to create money or not. That decision is based on whether the person demanding the money will be able to repay it or not. If he can, it means he is creating value with this money and thus able to repay it. 
    4. Decision at the point of demand of debt: The decision to create money is forward looking. It is made at the point the person makes a demand for the debt. That borrower is expecting to create future value. If by banks assessment that value can be generated ONLY then money is created.
    5. Depends on incentives: After reading this if you wonder why banks lend for consumption goods or lend to uncreditworthy borrowers - it is because of incentives. The power to create money is substantial power and with bad incentives, it can cause systemic harm as seen in 2008 crisis.
    6. Central bank oversight: Central banks have oversight duty to watch what kind of money is created by the banks. The nature of lending is supposed to be value-focussed. Some consumer lending at the time economy is entering a pro-longed boom phase can be advantageous. But in an economy which cannot sustain a prolonged growth phase, these are risky loans and their proportion needs to be limited.


My suggestion
Out of the options, I prefer the last one - a combination of bank created and government created money. It is quite forward looking and takes place at the point of demand. It needs a lot of oversight and decentralisation. I have argued that IT systems have in fact centralized the loan decision making than allow the front-line managers to make them. This has resulted in an inaccurate assessment of borrowers and partly responsible for the 2008 crises. Amar Bhide also makes a case for intelligent decision making in his book "A call for judgement".





Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Free Trade - or no free Trade - either ways it ain't free!

Econgirl commented about the latest free-trade issue.  It is a must read - continue down to the comments too! Then David Henderson commented about it on his blog and the comments where @econgirl responded to his question. All must read in the overall dialogue about free trade.

There are a few things that need consideration:

  1. The losers of free-trade - how adaptable they remain after they lose: In many cases, these people are lost - this is a political price we are paying. Thus, a $10 gain per-consumer v/s say a total job loss of 10,000 people (hypothetical primary loss) usually it remains concentrated (think Detroit) and second and third order economic losses. Now in monetary terms, the gain-loss may be whatever, but when a group of people loses their livelihood without any margin or buffer to create new opportunities for themselves, then it makes for a difficult choice.
  2. The initial condition is responsible for the losers being as many as they currently are: If the trade was always free, the adjustment would have taken place a long time ago, giving the population enough margin to adjust. However, the governments by their initial protectionist intervention create a bigger adjustment problem in the future. When a competency develops in a country, the government rallies behind the firms with the very policies which later accumulate into a bigger problem. The adjustment to new potential trade-based threat can be innovation or it can be defeat. The auto-industry failed to innovate - something Tesla did, Ford and GM should have done years ago. But those are victims of their own success. At present, China is funding auto-tech companies to bring out a competitor to Tesla. 
  3. Free trade - v/s Fair trade: Indeed some countries do "dump" products on to other markets. At the same time, some countries do use "non-tariff barriers" for the protection of domestic industry. When is the "fire-sale" not dumping and when "non-tariff barriers" are not protectionist can only be answered on a case-by-case basis. This ambiguity is used to target Free-trade unfairly. 
  4. Economic V/s moral - politics enters through morality: Can we allow some trade partner using slave labour to create losses in our country? Economics says why not, morality says no. Blood diamonds are an example. That is where politics comes in. So while overall benefits of free trade may be high - the morality over why the government should not choose one set over other is a strong political motive against change of status quo. Of course people selectively forget that it was government intervention that helped the problem to get bigger.

So in an ideal case:
  • Free Trade is the default. Government has no business interfering in that unless some moral issue arises. The scope of these issues are pretty narrow - slavery etc.
  • Countries should progressively move all policy towards sector neutrality - including trade policy. Thus, a government would be right to have 50% markup over all goods/services entering the country/sold in the country without discrimination.
  • Then let this state continue and let governments step away from the issue altogether. (more on this in another post).



Friday, June 24, 2016

Yeah! On Brexit!

Yeah Brexit is a reality! Signifies a few things:

  1. Politicians have misused / abused the Brexit debate
    1. The political and ruling classes are disconnected from the realities faced by the worker class. A sort of marxist dream has come true. Not only can't the politicians talk reasonably with the masses but they also don't seem to care. John Mauldin highlighted Peggy Noonan's protected v/s unprotected rationale - it is playing out now. Necessary corollary - we might be looking at a Trump victory.
    2. A sub-set of the worker class problem is the migrant issue. The migrants coming into do have a group of anti-community / anti-EU society that has entered EU creating social tension. While, most of the migrants are male - a statistic that is queer for war-related migration. I would have thought it should be more women and children (as per UN 62% of all migrants out of 800,000 that have traveled to Europe in 2015 are men). 
    3. Sadly, this has confused the domestic worker class about rational economic threat to their incomes and political threat to safety and well being. The first is short term set-back but results in long term prosperity. The second is a bit scary. The pro-Brexit vote is more because of second than first.
  2. Media hasn't done its bit to inform the average person.
    1. Media's lack of responsibility since the crisis has been alarming. But the polarised opinion on Brexit put up by media are disappointing. 
    2. The irrational rabble rousing has overwhelmed the thoughtful assessments and complexity of the issues has been trivialised. 
  3. Common people in developed countries are going to loose
    1. The discrepancy between easy capital mobility and difficult labour mobility affects the working class. If left unresolved, we will end up with capital controls. (Yeah it is a long way away but we are on that road). Alternatively, we can hope that labour mobility will ease up and people will realise their folly. 
  4. Our lack of understanding of economics has come to haunt us.
    1. Currently, only low income-low skilled people from under-developed countries want to migrate to developed countries because these people are squeezed to be producers in their own country. Similarly, the developed country people are tickled into consuming more than they can afford so that the status quo continues. The developed world citizens do not want to impair their life-style by migrating to developing countries. (That is because developing countries make it difficult to get the same life-style as developed countries - I mean in terms of law and order and quality of education etc.). This one-way traffic had to stop some time.
    2. With cheap capital, replacing a low-skill worker by expensive robots is feasible. This pains the working class no end. These people are caught between rock and hard place. They are being forced to go down to low-skill but on-site jobs. (the famous McJobs!)
    3. It is this anxiety that has been exploited for Brexit. So part of the blame goes to the economist and finance experts too. These are the very people who look shocked at Brexit vote.
After Brexit what next?
  1. In an age of increasing inter-connectedness a Brexit vote is first step trying to reverse the globalisation. There are reasons why anti-globalisation forces have followers - I wrote about this messy intermediate globalised system that is straining the worker class. But advantage really lies in globalisation and not protectionism.
  2. Unfortunately, the competitive raising of protectionist barriers will only increase. Marine Le Pen is demanding referendum for France. The northern EU members and Germany will soon be left looking stupid. So instead of PIGS defaulting and exiting - non-PIGS will drop off the union.
  3. The war on globalisation had to fought on "sovereignty" issue. It is a political war connected with Swiss bank hidden wealth, Tax havens and other "loop holes". 
  4. Once successful politically, these initiatives will turn on economic policy. The good work of integrating the world will be undone by economic and fiscal policies. 

Brexit will be a slow poison
The consequences of Brexit are far more dangerous but they will take time to play out. That means markets and asset prices will remain volatile. Consequently, long term investment in future shall remain the exclusive domain of governments. Add to this the renewed focus on austerity - 1937 looms all over again.

So it is said - may you live in interesting times.


Monday, August 31, 2015

Its not a Chinese sell-off!

For the past week, global markets have taken a fancy to the slowing of Chinese economy. It could be envy of watching a defiant surge in Chinese markets without any hiccup what so ever. This story, it appears, has nothing to do with China and more to do with Yellen. China somehow was an opportune discovery. 

The American economy, its size, and its global linkages make it core factor in asset price calculations. The US is a primary exporter of capital to most of the important markets of the world. It is also usually the most important sizeable end-consumer for many including China. Comparatively China is less inter-connected.

A US asset price rerating will affect everyone.
There is a risk hierarchy of assets explicit or implicit in the mind of the investor.  When other central banks do such a thing their Government bonds move along the asset risk-hierarchy but other assets do not get impacted. When the Fed modifies the interest rates the whole hierarchy moves up - it affects all the asset classes. With the impending rate hike by one of the biggest economies in the world we are looking at asset price rerating across the world. 

Hike pushes investors into action
Generally a reduction in rates allows existing investor more room as prices tend to increase in case of the rate cut. However, when the Fed hikes the interest rates, the riskier asset prices depreciate. This effect tends to push marginal investors into selling thereby creating an opportunity for broader sell off. 

The current sell-off seems more likely to be such a sell-off. It is unlikely that this sell-off has anything to do with China. China unfortunately slowed down at that very time and to top it off indulged into some anti-market moves that further spooked the markets. Naturally that has prolonged and aggravated the current sell-off.

Meaning of slowing China
China is highly export driven economy. The GDP contribution from investments was growing substantially. Post the 2008 crises two things happened - China increased the investment spending - investment to GDP ratio was ~ 40%, and did it in face of tapering consumption demand. The underlying assumption being that China hoped developed market demand will take-off in coming years.

Had demand returned China GDP would still look robust. It means developed world demand has not returned - despite reasonable GDP growth in developed economies. THAT to my mind is a bigger scare than simply China slowing down.