The RBI policy

The reserve bank of India (RBI) announced its annual monetary policy yesterday. The RBI increased repo, reverse repo and CRR by 25 basis points. The reasons were as follows:

1. Inflationary concerns are dominant. The RBI is keenly watching the change in the structure of inflation. Rising food prices triggered inflation last year (weak monsoon effect).  However, it quickly moved to non-food price increase. This, coupled with abundant liquidity has given inflation a substantial resilience. It is imperative to highlight that food prices have eased since January.
2. The Indian economic recovery is yet to get proper traction. The direction is right but credit off-take (bank and non bank) and other indicators are still wobbly.
3. The policy rates in India are about 100-150bps below the normal rates.  So this is a process of normalization.
4. Global factors continue to remain weak due to impending sovereign crises and playing out of asset deflation. The potential impact of sovereign crises is not fully clear and it is better to be circumspect than sorry.

The step change moves and cautious certain trajectory reminds one of Greenspan era policy changes. We know how that ended in bubbles. However, there are two reasons, intended or unintended, that makes the move a good choice.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in Indian economy. The way to counter uncertainty is by introducing certainty in controllable variables. The RBI has indicated a clear direction towards normalization and given us exactly this.

The RBI is also facing challenge of managing exchange rate regime. Any changes to relative exchange rates, interest rates will trigger a capital inflow into India affecting Indian domestic and export competitiveness. While it is not correct to promote export competitiveness through weak currency, the global exchange rate regime does not allow RBI that flexibility. With many countries following weak-currency approach, RBI will risk exposing domestic industry to unfair competition.

Thus, moving steadily while constantly watching the global scenario will serve the RBI and Indian economy better. The RBI has shown prudence, intelligence and resolve in combating the crises. Overall, this policy reinforces the RBI’s credibility.

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My book "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy - Systemic faults that caused the financial crisis" is available on Amazon.

My book "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" Launched!

My book "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" is now available on amazon (kindle version and paperback version). I am not yet sure why kindle and paperback version are shown as two different books but I think it will be sorted out soon. Here is a brief introduction:

Subverting Capitalism and Democracy

What caused the current financial crisis? A lot of answers have been proposed.  But do we know the root causes? This book looks at the causes behind the causes we know. The micro-faults that subverted capitalism and democracy are still overlooked.

Today, finance dominates our socio-economic hierarchy. Sadly, we know less about finance and economics than we like to believe.  We must relook at the basic concepts of finance and economics. We need to know how large pools of money create systemic weakness. We need to ask why the media and the regulators were sleeping at the switch.  

We have to go beyond lobbying, beyond “intellectual capture”, beyond exotic financial instruments and ask the next level of questions. Only then we will reach the root causes. Now is the time to set the system right. I hope this book will extend the discussion towards a solution.

Now that it has shipped I can see a million mistakes in it, a billion ways I could have made it better. But what the hell! I look forward to your feedback to make second version a better one.

The challenges facing Indian IT

Indian IT companies are not fully cognizant of the challenges facing them. There are many forces at work here:

1. The terms of exchange rate contribution will be adverse. Going forward, I expect the INR to appreciate closer to 35 (INRUSD). The only variable is exactly when. At the moment, financial analysts have lulled the managements into thinking that these levels are not possible in near future. I am not so sure.
2. Exchange rate will trigger further competitive pressures from global IT majors.
3. The need for cost cutting and efficiency is driving demand for IT companies. This may not remain as strong as expected. There should be some pressure on margins in this area.

Overall I would be keen to have in-depth session with top managements of Indian IT majors.

Debt Repudiation

After a long time we have come back to essential question. Is it ok for households to walk away? Naked Capitalism has a post by Edward Harrison titled Guest Post: Is Debt Repudiation a Good Thing or a Bad Thing? « naked capitalism.

I do not see why not. I think households should be allowed to walk away from non-recourse mortgages and no one has any business trying to create social pressure into paying more. Banks and financial institutions have played this as an economic game, no emotions. So why blame individuals when they make economic decisions.

Second, writing debt off is also used as a trick. You write off the debt but hold on the portfolio. Whatever the household pays back is then directly added to the profits. It might seem idiotic, but I have seen banks do it with ill intention.

Third, The written off portfolio is, in some cases, sold to "recovery agents". These agents follow up and try and recover as much from this as possible. In principle this is not wrong. But with inflated loans and deflated incomes this can be harsh. 

These steps will impede recovery of consumption in developed countries.

China Bust?