Indian IT companies are not fully cognizant of the challenges facing them. There are many forces at work here:
- The terms of exchange rate contribution will be adverse. Going forward, I expect the INR to appreciate closer to 35 (INRUSD). The only variable is exactly when. At the moment, financial analysts have lulled the managements into thinking that these levels are not possible in near future. I am not so sure.
- Exchange rate will trigger further competitive pressures from global IT majors.
- The need for cost cutting and efficiency is driving demand for IT companies. This may not remain as strong as expected. There should be some pressure on margins in this area.