Monday, January 16, 2017

World War 3 watch 01 - Some developments

Actually, this should the third post but I summarise what I observed in the past.

Probability of war seems to have increased. It is still small but definitely increased. Though it is unlikely that India will be involved in one (we never invaded any country in 5000 years - so we dont have the mindset) But, look how different war-indicating trends are catching up.
  1. China has more males in its population - typically when the pop ratio gets skewed the chances of war increases. Further, income polarization is very high in China. 
  2. Recession will make more people (mainly youth) unemployed and in financially distressed situation - implying combative etc
  3. US-china have classical debtor-creditor problem any strong arm by China will not be taken lightly by US. China believes it may be wronged by the US. If US dollar devalues then you can be sure things wont be easy on this front.
  4. War is by far the biggest domestic stimulus one can give - creates domestic jobs and stuff hence politicians are ok with war in such times.
  5. The typical flash points are visible - Afghanistan Pakistan is now a flash-point. If Us forces are attacked or get in some trouble then we could see drastic actions. Earlier North Korea, Malaysian protests, Demonstrations in Greece were some flash points ( though none as big as Af-Pak)
  6. Religious alignments are getting more stricter - talibanization of SWAT valley in Pakistan is an indicator. To certain degree, Obama election has reduced any polarization along religious lines that we saw earlier in US.
  7. US policies and other global stimuli are going to result in more income polarization. As global inflation strikes the differences will become more evident - I can foresee Mary Antoinette - "if you don't have bread eat cake" statements. 
  8. Usually such conditions are off-set by economic growth (that promotes peace) - but that has near about halted in past few months. Now if things do not improve we could be in for much tougher times.

  1. In 2015 Japanese parliament permitted their army to go aggressive( with US blessings). They have been making ships and aircraft carriers since few years ago displayed in Aussie, Singapore, Japan and US joint exercise - small allegedly helicopter carrier or something. 
  2. Last week I was seeing Singapore Air Force Fighter planes on evening patrols. Also every day they have the another surveillance plane - it is not the boeing posiedon in the air. 
  3. On friday, India announced surgical strikes on terror bases in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. 
  4. Last week, Singapore PM met Japanese PM Abe. Last month he met Obama. Chinese news paper is accused Singapore of siding with US. This week Singapore PM is meeting Narendra Modi.
  5. Last week Japanese PM Abe met Narendra Modi and promised him some military tech and other assistance including manufacturing assistance.
  6. Phillipines has abandoned US and is courting China. Durtete made a statement that he received encouragement from China and Russia on his anti-US remarks.
  7. Last month the International Arbitration Tribunal restrained China from claiming rights on South China Sea.
  8. Last month Austrailia published a white paper on maritime defence highlighting the need to protect the interest in the northern coasts and in the Pacific. Australia does not have any threat from any country in the Pacific save China. It is way far out and super friendly with most of the major powers. It has a love-hate relations with some island countries where China has become active.
  9. US is offering F-16 (yeah the old ones) to India for make-in-India option. (The tech is old but the offer is quite lucrative)

A few more developments are have taken place since then,

  1. Russia unveiled Satan -2 ICBM range exceeding 11,000kms
  2. India successfully tested Smart Anti-Airfield Missile (Bunker busters)
  3. Israel has received its F35s which will be fitted with Israeli tech
  4. Russia launched massive war drill involving civilians.
  5. Russia has also deployed nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad.
  6. Great Britain stated that it will sail its ships through south China Sea in 2017 and station ships and aircraft in 2020.
  7. The US activated the missile shield in Europe last year
  8. The US will be deploying THAAD systems in South Korea soon.
  9. Japan's helicopter carrier seems to be a disguised aircraft carrier.
  10. Chinese second aircraft carrier a replica of first one will be commissioned in 2017 or 2018. The third carrier may be equal to the biggest aircraft carriers of US.
  11. government issued directions in 2015 that certain civilian ships may be used by navies in an emergency to augment its naval supply chain.
  12. US-India have finalised a deal for M777 Howitzer.
While these military developments are taking place, Trump is busy questioning one-china policy, the trade arrangements with China and anti-dumping duties. China detained 9 armoured vehicles headed to Singapore after Singapore conducted some military exercises with Taiwan.

Another event is sustained Japanese visits to countries across the Asia-Pacific. These are being made at the highest level and with consistency.

All these developments are not healthy. Unless there is concerted effort to diffuse this situation, it can quickly get out of hand.