As expected, once I published this I got some flak. I do not wish to detail the flak here. But case in point is an argument by some let us call her "M". Her point is that there are so many "experts" who have trashed this move. Here is my response to her. This is a response to all the "M" out there. Please don't think I single her out.
I completely understand M. I have written a book on economics myself - two to be precise. And just for your information I gave an "average rating" on Modi's app.
But I want to form my own opinion. Not simply accept Hanke who is speculating. I admire him too FYI. If you want to negative opinion. There is Jim Rickards who is a gold bug who also has negative view. There are many in this camp in fact.
I am trying to understand why many poor are giving positive views on this measure. I don't accept that people are so sick-minded that just because few corrupt persons holding cash will lose their money, 700 million will become happy. I think we Indians are better than this.
So I filtered out the media - all media. You will see I haven't quoted Swaraj mag nor have I quoted the wire.
I wanted the concept explained properly somewhere. I need to understand what govt wants to put out. That I came across in three interviews - Kant debroy and bokil to whom I have linked to. I also linked to the proposal which was presented to Modi. That is the only media I have linked to.
The public opinion that I have linked to is from people who at least have no stated affiliation to media. They may be pro Modi but it did not seem so. I have linked to one lady who was ranting against modi too.
My friend, had visited Guwahati and he saw the situation on ground and he says that there are difficulties but things are calming down. You can check his views on my stream. I personally visited ATMs in South and Central Mumbai - I found long queues. But then I returned at 1030pm and I found quite a few ATMs free. There were lines at some but not others. I withdrew 100 Rupees notes. (These are anecdotal but when MSM is biased we have to rely on that) Roahini Ali whose video I linked to seems to have done better structured feedback. So I linked to her video.
Then I thought it was important to lay out the goalpost that will tell us if the policy is successful or not. If I see those goals being met then I will change my mind and say the policy is a success.
By now you know that I am not yet sure if this is good policy or not. I wrote a prior post explaining black economy and demonetisation.
Please consider what will make YOU change your mind on the policy either for or against. Establish your own goalpost. Do it in your own mind - but do it. You will love to see the events against it.
Sometimes people tell me - look 100 people died in the last almost one month. I personally thought there could have been more deaths. Seriously! And that was why I was against the policy. We are 700 million not counting old and too young. That's more than the entire population of USA. 700million went to the bank in distress and yet no riots broke out. People are not cribbing they are supportive. That number once verified can be debated. But at present, we are talking about 2 people in one crore.
To end I must suggest one exercise. "M", try to connect with people and get their feedback. Positive, negative it doesn't matter. Let the real feedback come through. Unedited. Post it on YouTube. I will be happy to see it. Don't let these biased guys from right and left influence you. Between unbiased you and unbiased me there won't be conflict. But we know the biased even go to war with each other.
The thing is we are passively choosing the sides. Both sides are wrong - the reality is the third side. If we try to find that side, we will enter into a healthy debate. Please try, country and society will be thankful to you.