Thursday, September 11, 2008

Tim Duy explains current situation

Mark Thoma links to Tim Duys article on US and Japan equivalence here.
  • The loss of US policy independence in accordance with the impossible trinity
  • This poses threats to globalization in the context of US losing independence.
  • US (excess consumption no saving) is polar opposite of Japan (lower consumption high savings).
This implies that for any real progress US demand contraction must happen. In this context, Larry Summer’s call for second stimulus may look ridiculous – but so long as global central banks are playing the game it doesn’t matter. To be fair, there is not much option left with Fed. Further, this is supposed to buy time – US may not be able to play this hand later in the game. I think this only postpones the inevitable fall of dollar.

The current new-found affinity for US dollar is actually repulsion to EM markets rather than affinity to US dollar. This money will go to newly spiced up US exporters. Exporters loose their competitiveness as it is derived from US dollar weakness. People loose money. It doesn’t matter in which currency you loose it – its lost. Loosing it in dollars makes it little better for the rest of us because there are just too many dollars sitting in vaults these days.

Welcome to the down-cycles.

Update:

Wall Street Journal concurs here. Link through The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz