ICE: The Telecom / Technology story PART II

Introduction
In the last articles we had examined how some of the issues with Communication revolution are resolved. Now, will it be possible for the communication revolution to hit us as hard as had been predicted? Again I do not have the answers.

Yet, when I observe the ICE space evolving in the Indian context, I see a clear dichotomy of evolution. Service Providers are seeing great business models in the application segment. Hence they are pushing applications to the consumers. Some of the very basic applications have been a hit. “TV on the mobile” has not really taken off but downloading ring tones has been a money spinner. Consumers are accepting some and rejecting many applications. The service providers and instrument manufacturers are eager to understand what the next money spinner could be.

I believe the key to the success of new applications rests with the device. Let us look at the device in more detail.

Device
A device is a piece of equipment we use to access the bandwidth. These devices are tools for processing information, communicating tools or entertainment platforms.

Components of the device
Any component can be disaggregated into:

• Processor
• Memory / Storage
• Human Interface
• Identification
• Power unit
• Network Interface

Processor

A significant development is happening from each of the devices getting a piece of silicon in them. Things from alarm clocks to washing machines to cars to televisions everything has become “smart”.

If you look closely, you will realize that in devices where there was enough space and supply of power people have thought of putting a processor. Nanotechnology is making these chips smaller and faster and cooler (lower heat generation). This is assisting the development.

Applications can be developed for devices that have a general purpose processor with an operating system. The Application based business model will imply that environment will favour these devices. In fact, many of the applications that currently use special purpose processors (Fuel timing chips in cars) will start using this business model. But just wait before you start dreaming about the kind of possibilities.

Memory / Storage
As with the processor chips, memory chips are getting smaller. Sure, but there is a difference. Let me bring your attention to the different business models. They demonstrate the evolution discreetly.

Your Mobile Service voicemail, which is a form of storage of information, resides on the network, but your SMS messages need to be stored on your device. Have you thought why?

Well the simple answer is that Voicemail was bulkier than SMS and memory in the device was scarce so smaller size application moved to the device first. So does this mean that eventually when we have “a lot” of memory all the data will sit on our mobile phones? I guess not.

The key question one needs to ask is what happens when the bandwidth access speed becomes so fast that we can access most of the application on the fly. To answer this, look at the email. Email for most cases is stored on central servers.


What I am stating is that there are various models, the email model wherein data stays on the server, applications stay on the mobile. There is SMS model, where in the data stays with the person and the application goes to the server.

Where what is stored is decided by the bandwidth available at your disposal. Consequently, as the bandwidth increases, we might shift towards fetch as you need models.

Moving further…
The components that I am discussing below are a little far fetched. I am not sure if they will happen as there are some economic / strategic / competitive reasons for suggestions not happening. If you know any reason what are the reasons these would not happen please write to me.

I will however, continue with the series of components of the devices. The next being the human interface.

Human Interface
Human Interface is something wherein we are able to interact with the device. This is also an area where least development has taken place. The reason is just that collectively we take a lot of time to learn the new ways to interface with machines. In one sense “driving a car” is an interfacing function and so is interacting with a computer.

But beyond the weirdness, if you simply concentrate on computer – human interface, you will find discrepancies. For example, computer screen is now our primary media, yet we type documents in A4 format. Does that make the documents more readable?
Mobile phone manufacturers are telling us that we should watch television on the mobile phone screen. No one asked me am I comfortable watching it.

There are some developments worth noticing. People have put television screens in cars, behind aircraft seats and possibly wherever they could. Also the projection technology is improving substantially.

What can drastically alter the interface aspect is the internetworking of all these interface technologies. Like your laptop keyboard can be used for your mobile. And your television can show the photo you just received on your computer. We get the hint with the new software that comes with the cell phones these days that allow you to peek at the Cell phone contents thorough your computer.

So it means that we will use what ever screen we have in close proximity to us. The software that will allow for this versatility will have to hit the market. But there is a strong case for such internetworking to happen.

Sounds weird doesn’t it? But there is no reason it should not happen. And though it has already started sounding magical there is more.

Identifiers
Identifiers are those parts of devices that enable the network to know your identity. The SIM card in the mobile phone is one such identifier. On the computer there is a login-password mechanism that is used as an identifier.

As is well known the identifiers are key to security! (PUN intended) In fact a lack of developments in convenient scanners has limited the growth of the online transactions. It is primarily why Bill Gates is tracking security closely. That is why he is such a visionary.

There are two / three elements in the security environment. One is scanning the user input and second is transporting it across the bandwidth securely.

Public Key Infrastructure promises to deliver this very functionality. Coupled with a hand held reliable finger-print scanner, this will transform the way we conduct business. I think we need to watch for a day when hand held scanners can be connected with or embedded in a cell phone.

There will be a substantial discontinuity in terms of electronic transactions when that happens.

Yeas of course there is still more.

Power
Every device needs power. Mobile devices carry their power pack along with them, rest of them are plugged to the wall because of power.

Improvements in battery technology have allowed us to have longer battery life out of a smaller battery. It has allowed us to have lot of applications running on our mobile devices.

Battery has played a critical role in the number of applications the mobile device can take. The better the battery the more applications you can load on it.

Charging technology has also improved. Apple has made some progress in this area by making the iPod charge while we play the songs from it.

Yet, have you noticed that the device manufacturers do not have a standard battery packs. Each device comes with its own charger and its own socket. We cannot use a Nokia charger with Samsung Phone, or we cannot use a cell phone charger for a laptop. If these devices have interchangeable power plugs, it will mean a lot more convenience for the consumer.

When we will see a movement in that direction is God’s guess.

Summary
We have seen how the different components of the devices can change and unleash a new wave of applications. At the outset some of the thoughts may seen outrageous, but it is not that far fetched.

For example, the power units of computers are standardized across motherboards so it is not unrealistic to expect that we can have a standard for power plugs in mobile phones. These are changes that have happened and will happen sooner or later.


The way forward
In the next article I will examine what are the different kinds of functionalities that can be added into mobile phones as an example. I will propose a hypothesis that there is a convergence in devices as well in terms of components. I will also give you examples where components are added to the device to create better value and also examples where components are sold separately to create value.

Feedback
Please let me know what you think on this. Your feedback is critical and will enlighten me. And do check back again to read about the new devices and the future of ICE.

ICE: The Telecom / Technology story!

Introduction
Communication and Technology revolution has flummoxed many in the so-called "real" world. On one side, more people are comfortable in downloading ring-tones and watching movie trailers. On the other, there are others who are still wondering about what happened to the future when the refrigerator would talk to the online grocer and order groceries. In the business world the top management is scared that their ERP solution will become obsolete even as they roll it out. But will it actually happen is a question to which there is yet no answer.

I am as confused as everyone else. Yet, in the following these are a series of articles detailing some aspects of these issues that may provide an answer. I have read some literature on these issues from various sources and Telecosm by Gilder is something that I would like to recommend. Yet the views expressed in the following articles are my own and may be wrong. I invite you to please provide me valuable feedback and opinions on these.

The Issues with Communications Revolution
We all expected that communication revolution that started with the Internet to invade every aspect of our professional and personal life would hit us soon. We all waited but it hasn’t come yet. There are reasons that are apparent in the hindsight. Some of the prominent ones were:
1) Lack of Cheap bandwidth
2) Lack of last-mile access Infrastructure
3) Lack of Ideas.

Bandwidth Problem
The applications thought possible, during the peak of the 2001 tech bubble were conventional applications. Like “movies-on-demand”, a lot of these applications required bandwidth that is simply not available. Some applications like Internet based real-time ERP faltered because bandwidth across international borders was absent. This connectivity was essential as the businesses became more and more globalized.

But as of now, a lot of band has come up. There is a lot of fiber very close to where you are sitting and reading this article now. A significant gain has also been because of the price discovery of the fiber bandwidth by the service providers. Service providers now see fiber-optic cables as information pipes and are focusing on capacity utilization. This seems to be common sense wisdom and they were focusing on these earlier. But there is a key difference. I will highlight it as we come to it.

Last Mile Access Infrastructure
Last mile access was unavailable. By this I do not mean that we had no solution to last mile connectivity, but that it was expensive.
Often the accessing equipment could be used for little else. The desire was never urged on by a need. This is exactly what mobile-phone revolution has done. The coming of age of 3-G mobiles has given the mobile users different ways and means to be connected. The revolution has changed the lifestyle of people making them comfortable carrying a device with them 24X7.
Only two other devices in human history have created such a powerful change, first being wristwatches and second being the Walkman. Yet the key aspect of the mobile revolution is that now people carry with them in the form of a mobile phone, a processor, memory and a modem. And they carry it 24X7.
This has subsidized (mentally) the cost of getting the last-mile-access device with you.

Lack of Ideas
The foremost problem was the lack of ideas. Of course business has a way of weeding out the bad ideas sooner or later. But there are a lot of things that are starkly visible. Like for example, what Gilder says in Telecosm, we have voice networks (Telephones) carrying data (Fax) and we also have data networks (Internet) carrying voice (Internet Telephony).
Similarly we have different business models running on same “bandwidth”. Like we pay per minute for calls on mobile phones, but FM radio on the same device is free. Some of the data (voicemail) is stored on remote server, some on device (SMS, voicemail). Some data (PIM data) that ideally should be on a remote server is replicated on different devices; where as some data that should ideally be on the device we need to download (MP3, Songs).

Problems are solved…
But all these problems are getting sorted out. And a new reality we all were anticipating is emerging. But it is not something that we envisaged. The new reality is mix of partly things that we anticipated and partly of something totally different. So what is the new reality?
In the next article we will examine the future gadgets that can exploit these developments. We will also examine which gadgets can succeed and what infrastructure can profitably come up to serve the new information applications that will thrive in the new world.

Feedback

Please let me know what you think on this. Your feedback is critical and will enlighten me. And do check back again to read about the new devices and the future of ICE.

India China Agreements

India and China are signing various memoranda of understanding today. I am interpreting these in the light of the few things I have heard and know about India and China. These things make me think really hard about the implications of the interest both countries have shown in coming together. If I can read correctly this is a major "joining of forces" of India and China.

Here are somethings that, if they pan out well for both the countries, should make the world sit up and take notice. Are the current development being undertaken keeping in mind these things or are they simply a matter of chance. That question has a great bearing on the outcome of this "joining of forces". In the case of former there is a very high chance that things will hot up in Asia in the coming decades. In the case of latter, well its a far stretch.

Please let me know your views.

DISSIMILARITIES

1. Roughly 50% of India's GDP comes from the services sector, whereas roughly 50% of China's comes from manufacturing.
2. India has a large english speaking (fluently) population. China is facing that challange.
3. Indian development is spear-headed by private players, givernment is acting as a facilitator (or a hindrance) whereas Chinese development is more government sponsored and private players enjoy a comparatively marginal role.
4. Currently China has got more people in the working age-group than India, however India will have more people in the working age-group than China over the next 30 years.
5. If you look at Indian manufacturing its geared towards more of short-run multiple variety products. China on the other hand is very large runs and few variety products.
6. China has well established infrastructure whereas India is facing that challange.
7. Indian Banking (Development Funding) System is the best in the world whereas China is sorely lacking in that department.
8. China has a structured sports program compared to a nearly non-existent one in India.
9. All said and done China has better regulation and possibly implementation than India which lacks in both adequate "appropriate" regulation (with abundance of "inappropriate" regulation) and a lack of enforcement (and enthusiastic enforcement of "inappropriate" ones)
10. India has the potential to be the kitchen and office of the world. China has the potential or almost is the factory of the world.
    

SIMILARITIES

1. India and China each have nearly a billion people.
2. Both have ambitious space programs, military programs, missile programs.
3. Both have strong traditions that have a similar psyche.
4. Tea! (May be China does not have "cutting" yet!)
5. Both have a similar inclination towards saving v/s spending.
6. Strong Family systems are seen in both cultures.
7. Corruption is a rampant problem in both the countries.
8. Strong tradition has given a strong art, crafts and culture possibilities. Chinese have marketed those very well but yoga and aurveda could well change the face of art and culture like what tai chi and feng sui have done for China.

INDIAN UNIQUENESS (DONT KNOW ABOUT CHINA)

1. Religion and the sheer multiplicity and co-existance of many religions and beliefs. (Dis-regarding Modi's and other politically motivated rioteers)
2. Movies and by far the greatest movie producing machinery ever put in motion (again disregarding some of the overused furniture like "couch" and "beds" and also "make-up vans")
3. Cricket or its existance as an industry that drives the global cricket economy (Forget the lack of vision seen in under-representation at the ICC, or the "arranged" Indo-Pak affairs that go around)
4. Tourism and abundance of the "tourist potential" places.
5. The variety of Cuisines of India, I am not sure if China (or the world) have as much variety.

DONT KNOW IF THAT IS SO:

• Language (Its difficult for each other to grasp the other language however India could have an advantage in swiftness to learn new language whether or not we exploit it is other matter) Bring a udipi guy (or a Punjabi or a Gujrati or anyone else for that matter) into remote chinese village and soon you will know how soon Indians can learn any language in the world.
  

Rahul Deodhar 

Organisational Roles for 21st century Business

INTRODUCTION

One of the key questions faced by leaders and managers is how to tap new opportunities through creative and innovative use of resources. The dimensions of this question are very vast. Some teams within the organization seem to be regularly innovative and creative in identifying and encashing opportunities in the business environment. Some others are lost in dealing with the daily grind. Organizations seize opportunities much better under some leaders than others. Why is this so? Is there any particular way or method to structure the organization to identify and tap new opportunities?

A FRAMEWORK FOR ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE

Organisations comprise:

1. Skill sets: These represent areas of expertise available within the organisation. So Accounting is a skill set and so is Production.
2. Relationships: These represent how the skill sets are interlinked to achieve the objectives of the organisation.

Tapping new opportunities requires developing "new" skill set or "new" inter-relationship between skill sets to achieve the new objectives. This determines how effectively we can tap the opportunity. If the "new" is a radical depart from the "old" we have disruptive change.

SNIFFING AND TAPPING OPPORTUNITIES

Unleash the "scouts": The job of the scout is to explore the "new" and translate it into meaningful opportunity relevant to the team and communicate it to the team. Organizations seldom have "identified" or marked" scouts. I cannot comment if scouts can be trained or they are born but I can definitely tell you that they have unique set of skills that are hard to find.

Bringing in the commandos: Commando teams have been seen in movies and their potential glorified. Here is a recap of characteristics of commando teams in organizations:

• They are "multi-skilled team".
• They have "authority" to call-off or take forward the venture.
• They are expert trainers (they have to train people to take their roles).
• They have very detailed knowledge of organizational capabilities.
  organizations use Commando units as a pilot. Commando units often "bootleg" resources throughout organizations for the new venture. Scouts work closely with commando units initially. As soon as the success is ensured scouts move out of the business to get back to scouting.

Bring in the "bureaucrats": Bureaucrats is a wrong term to use (as it maligned) but these are system specialists. They setup vital processes that take the focus away from day-to-day details to value adding activities. They create skill sets at required points in the chain. Commandos usually do not form the systems as their multi-skilled approach is in direct contradiction to this concept.

Setting the course: During the course of time a leader emerges and he sets the course of this venture.

TYPICAL PITFALLS IN TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES

Losing the scouts: Scouts are hard to find. Organization often lets go of the scouts during the phase it is involved with setting up the processes. Motivation for the scouts comes from the "new". Indulgence with the old is frustrating for these. Scouts' job is different as often they come up with nothing. Organizations set up wrong expectations from scouts similar to what can be done for process based skills. Scouts cannot be put to 90% success rate rule. It stifles creativity. Do you know who the scouts are in your organizations?

Forgetting the commandos: For each new venture in the initial stage a lot of work is done unsystematically. Often the team does not know what are the challenges in store for them and are faced with precarious situations. Organizations that jump into new ventures minus the commandos fall flat because no amount of systems and processes can replace the thinking-on-the-feet commando. If luck prevails and there are no significant challenges in the new venture (then it hardly is a new venture) then it’s an exception. Are there enough commandos in your organization?
Morphing the commandos: After successfully starting the venture the organization expects the commandos to man and run it as efficiently as the bureaucrats, a tough ask. Organization almost always will lose able commandos to either bureaucrat or they may just leave the organization. Have you seen a commando sitting in as a bureaucrat?
Forgetting the bureaucrats: organizations based on commando culture have their survival dependent on key people. These people are often identified with the organization, but as soon as they leave they leave a huge hole in the organization. The skill of bureaucrats is that they embed organization knowledge into systems thus making organization's survival independent of the people. If you are working for company that survived for a few years, I bet you have seen them somewhere up there and wondered why they went there. Have you?
Leadership dilemma: Typically “bureaucrat” leaders prefer “bureaucrat” top management and so on. This is not conscious but a commando “understands” the working style of other “commando” better than others for obvious reasons. This kind of working is unfavorable for the organizations interest in the long term. Intuitively it seems that leaders are a different breed in themselves.

Smart Cards

SMART CARDS are something that have always intrigued me. In fact the trouble started when I was looking for a credit card so that I have less money to carry around in the wallet. As usual my bank refused to give me a credit card. Soon afterwards they again started perstering me with offers on cards as diverse as required. So here was a list of cards I am supposed to carry:

1. Debit card for Bank A
2. Debit card for Bank B
3. Pertol consumer card from co P.
4. Petrol user card from Co. Q.
5. Cellphone gift card.
6. My Book club card.

And yet I dont have a credit card. Regularly I receive a lot of offers from my cellco and other co.s which offer me great discounts if I show that card at a certain restaurant. When I decide to go to a restaurant I forget if I have a discount offer for that restaurant and if that was from my book club or it was from my petrol pump company or my supermart. Welcome to the card heaven!! This is the 21st century.

Introducing a high security Java card. This one will do a hell lot of things for you and it will be the only card you will carry. Look at this:

BENEFITS:

1. Works with ATMs of all banks.
2. Works with credit/debit card companies. (How does the customer select whether he wants to pay by debit card or credit card?)
3. Works with fill-up card / loyalty card machines etc.
4. Works as an Id. has your foto on it. Stores various important numbers like passport number driving licence number.
5. Has your thumb digital imprint on it for verification. May be Iris scan too!
6. Has a unique number that can be used by cellcos and other cos to enable their offers on your card.
7. Functions as a Voters ID.
8. Can enable access to your computer over the network which is the basic concept of the SUN JAVA card.
9. Can be used as the Cell-SIM for CDMA/GSM and other phones.
10. You have to plug into your Movie theater to open the seat which naturally disables the cell connection.
11. Is put into a special close-fit charged cover in hospitals which can be read by the magnetic/door access systems.

Is it utopia? Are we in heaven? Is it possible? What could be the problems with such a system? Well welcome to digital reality!!

MECHANISM BASICS: (These need to be revamped of course)

In this new system, unlike the old, the card is more powerful than the machine that accesses the card information. So our machine is dumb or semi-smart. Which means that it can access only a certain information form our card. This it does in presence of two thumb imprints. One of the operator designated and other of the holder of the card. Without the thumb scanner of the card holder the card will not divulge any details.

1. How to maintain the integrity of the machines? The machine may be tampered with to access different data from the card and thus compromising the security of the card holder.
2. How will the card be disabled when it is lost/stolen etc.? One solution: Use an access machine with card number and the users thumb imprint which will automatically disable the card. A wrong usage increases sequrity requirement by say asking for finger prints of two fingers and three wrong attempts wipes the data off the card making the card useless.
   

Physically, the card would be made up of four components:

1. the main card.
2. the SIM attachment
3. the semi-SIM (SMS only)
4. close fit cover battery

Main Card
Main card would consist of a memory device that can store a large quantum of data. Primary required data can be classified as:

• Identification data: Voter ID, Passport No. Driving Licence No., finger prints, iris scans, signature copy, digital photograph, distinctive characteristics etc.
• Service Information: like bank details for credit and debit card, club id card and premissions granted by these service providers to the card holder.
• Access information: Details like which computer the data of the person is stored etc.# Details: Driving Licence details, Passport details, Voter details, Address phone number email etc.
• Transitory data: This data may be added or deleted by the user by using a computer / card access machine. If the card is lost and new card is made then the transitory data would be lost.(why? Maybe unless the card is backed up)
  -

The edges would be magnetised as required by the credit card/debit card swipe mechanisms.

Most of the places this card without the SIM / Semi-SIM / Cover will be used.

The top of the card will carry the photo and some details of the card-holder as a requirement of ID card.

The top will also have printed the Voter ID number or one CArd identification number. Which will be public in nature.

Will consist of a processor

Will have "wired-in" / "burnt-in" instructions to check the validity of the machine accessing the information. The processor will use the power from the host machine. Will reject any transaction if the host machine fails the ID test. If the host machine passes the processor will monitor and log the data accessed while granting permissions to the host machine for every access.

Processor will compute the best deals for the card holder when used in transactions like credit card debit card / money spent.

Processor will maintain a clock thats in-sync with the central world clock.

SIM attachment

SIM attachment will be housed in the card but it can be removed manually creating a small notch in the shape of the SIM.

The SIM attached to the card, and the cover battery put on will make a homing device since the SIM signal can be tracked by the Cell Ground Stations.

In areas where cell phones are not allowed the card will function only when the SIM is attached to the card.

ex. The movie theater seats will open for seating only when the card is inserted into the chair access slot and kept there. The chair access slot will check for SIM presence without which the seat remains closed.

ex2. In petrol pumps, cars where cell phones are not allowed machines will check for the presence of the SIM on the cards.

Semi-SIM attachment

This allows the user to send and receive SMS on his cell phone. Also works as a pseudo-SIM for Blue-tooth / WAP / access. This however puts the cell-instrument on the silent mode. Looks attaches exactly like the standard SIM.

This may be used for incoming calls with a message to the caller indicating the status of the called party.

Close-Fit Cover Battery

This covers the card totally and plugs-in to the card at certain points. These points serve to fix the card tothe cover.

This attachment together becomes a play / game device. We have games on parallel with the get-a-date game famous in Japan. So it may have two/three LEDs for adding fun to the experience.

This cover has a data port connection for connecting to a computer / card access machine. With the connection in place the crd-holder can input transitory data to the card. Game data is transitory data.

The card cover is dumb and can be interchanged. Any cover can be used with any card. So on purchase the card may come with two or three covers depending upon the requirement of the user.

Card cover can be charged just like a cell phone using the same technology.

CONCLUSION: Will it become a reality?

Companies are working on a multi purpose cards. But one never knows if thats going to take off. But at least they are thinking and that is a good sign. The key hurdle I believe is to make this card take off, even if some one can make such a card. Technology is not a hurdle here, acceptability is. If someone can solve that problem the entire concept can work like a dream.

More than that our purses will not be jammed with cards from different companies. The money part however will still remain!! ;)