GDPR Notice
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Debt Repudiation
Monday, January 18, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
Market View and trading strategy from Vitaliy Katsenelson
In range-bound markets, as P/Es compress they turn against investors; thus investment strategy in this very different and difficult environment needs to be adjusted for the new investment reality:
- Become an active value investor. Traditional buy-and-forget-to-sell (hold) strategy is not dead but is in a coma waiting for the next secular bull market to return; and it’s still far, far away. Sell is not just another four-letter word; sell discipline needs to be kicked into higher gear.
- Margin of safety needs to be increased. Typically, value investors seek for margin of safety to protect them from overestimating the “E”. In this environment it needs to be beefed up to accommodate the impact of constantly declining P/Es.
- Don’t fall into the relative valuation trap. Many stocks will appear cheap based on past valuations, but past secular bull market valuations will not be in vogue for a long time, thus absolute valuation tools such as discounted cash-flow analysis should carry more weight.
- Though timing the market is alluring, don’t – it is very difficult to do it consistently. Value individual stocks instead. Buy them when they are undervalued and sell them when they become fairly valued.
- Increased margin of safety and stricter sell discipline will lead one to have a higher cash position at times. Don’t invest for the sake of being invested, because this will force you to own stocks of marginal quality or ones that don’t meet your heightened required margin of safety. Secular bull markets taught investors not to hold cash, as the opportunity cost of doing so was very high. However, the opportunity cost of cash is a lot lower during a range-bound market.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Stimulus - Monetary, Fiscal or both
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
US Dollar views
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Defining end of recession
If it takes three consecutive quarters of GDP decline to call a recession then how can we call it over by just one good quarter?
Monday, December 14, 2009
Dollar will go down - just not yet!
Exporter push developing country central banks to the wall!
Currency tango - It still takes two for it!
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Hidden Risk in Indian Tech
- Multi-location operations will be an advantage: This implies having robust processes to create and manage scaling issues well. Companies like ones mentioned above are operating in various countries thus helping them react better.
- Flexi-sizing will be key: If the currency valuations reach new normalcy, it will be important to relocate manpower to cheaper locations. Companies will have to be quick to rapidly expand, move or lay-off employees. While, all the companies above have what it takes to do it, we should realise it is not an easy process.
- A bit more fat! The crisis is upon us and the IT companies are cash rich. The key is to keep higher than normal cash reserves and not fall into the acquisition trap at this early stage.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Interpreting Equity Valuation and simple strategy
- We have to find financially robust companies that generate positive cash flows and have lesser leverage.
- We then look for managements that have a vision for growth. We are looking for cash-flow accretive growth. So companies with plans to buy market share are out. Growth should be profitable growth.
- Thereafter we watch these companies for opportunities to buy. Any correction is opportunity to accumulate.
- Exit when the market peaks! Exit is very critical otherwise all profits are paper profits.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Tele-density and MOU - changing Paradigms
A lot of telecom analyst base their growth forecast on tele-density figures. Tele-density refers to ratio of number of connections to population. It is usually expressed as a percentage. Tele-density determines the upper limit to subscriber growth.
MOU refers to minutes of usage or talk-time of subscribers. “Minutes of Usage” multiplied by Average Revenue per Minute (ARPM) to arrive at Average Revenue per User (ARPU). ARPM has shown a declining trend with respect to time. MOU, therefore, represents growth potential of current subscribers.
The growth potential of any telecom company is a function these two variables. Yet, the concept of teledensity and MOU have not been understood well. A few innovations in the past few years have added new life to both these variables in ways analysts have failed to grasp.
Era of bandwidth Node
The interpretation of teledensity as a cap is remnant of telephone as a voice call device era. This old era represented voice-based communication. We also discovered ways to send data over telephone lines. But this was inefficient. We were sending data over voice networks.
The era has changed and a new era is here. Today, telecom is essentially a provider of bandwidth node at a given location. The question of what to do with this bandwidth is entirely left to market forces. Market forces have deciphered one use of the node through “smart phone technology. Today our networks are essentially dual-mode networks. On the smart-phone or any 3G phone, we have access to a data network AND a voice network. We are no longer sending data over voice network.
So the correct way to look at MOU is in fact, to look at overall consumption of bandwidth. There is no doubt this is only going to go up!
Smart phones boosting data usage
The smart in smart phone is actually in usage of bandwidth tap. The smart phones have, through use of apps, created new uses of data. Further, the presence of 3G implies we are going to listen to move songs and watch more videos on the smart phone. Both these applications are bandwidth-hogging applications.
Overall data requirement of phone user has definitely gone up. And most of the time, data is served by a telecom company. Sometimes, it is your telephone cable connected to a wi-fi modem, other times it is your phones 3G network. As new apps spread, we will have increasing data requirements. So MOU, in terms of overall usage of telecom service will go up. Also, the more connected people are more are voice calls likely!
The upper limit on teledensity
Tele-density has another story. First, there is natural requirement for multiple phone connections per person. In developed countries the number is 2. So we can expect a natural phone penetration limit to twice the population. Further, simply put, there is a potential to connect all the laptops that are in use in the market currently. So the factor of 2 seems pretty understated. Thereafter, anything that is mobile and generates data is a target for embedding a phone connection.
Telecom can definitely cannibalize 50% of the GPS applications. Cars can share location data, engine performance and others. Trucks and delivery vehicles are already using telecom based location services.
Further, it does not take much imagination to foresee new applications. A door viewer that can send photo of visitors is pretty common. Telecom-equipped nanny cams are definitely well accepted. TV set-top boxes can have embedded connections transmitting viewing habits. Buses in Switzerland are already transmitting data about arrival times.
In sum, we can say that older paradigms of Tele-density need to be massively revamped.
It will happen within 5 years
The classical rebuke to these arguments is visibility. Analysts do not foresee such changes happening in near term. I think otherwise. All it needs is right pricing and little bit of imagination. The iPhone, is revolutionary in that sense. It has socialized the imagination part while retaining the basic bandwidth pipe control to itself! I am betting, we will see tremendous explosion in bandwidth consumption in next 5 years and most of this will enrich the telecom companies. That is why I have invested in Bharti Airtel (Bloomberg: Bharti IN).
Download the document in PDF format.Ideapaper - New Teledensity Paradigms
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
The impending Crash...
There is a difference between the recovery rally and the main rally that preceded it. People have started talking about sustainable recovery in equity markets. Still, things are not as they seem. Investors should brace for a rough ride ahead. The rally seems to comprise four phases.
Four Phases of market movement
First phase of secular insanity. In this phase all stocks go up. People ignore the fundamental warning signs. Even companies with questionable managements got sky high valuations. His phase ended with the great crash of 2008. Possibly, what Rob Shiller calls "irrational exuberance" appears to be this stage.
Phase two is essentially over-excitement of the rationalists. Looking at cheap valuations and signs of strength in company performance the rationalists over-extended themselves. Midway, the irrational investors rejoin the party. The phase ends when the cynics join in. We are currently at this stage. I am watching the converstion of cynics. Even this phase ends with a crash. The dimension of the fall now will determine the long term damage to the economy.
Phase three is a placid languishing of the markets at near bottom levels. There is lack of trust and overall cynicism about any future prospects. This is the true bottom. Sweat, sacrifice and prudence regain their respect in this phase.
The hard work in phase three results in growth and proserity that is our final phase. The economy gains traction and with it, a new hope emerges.
Is the crash coming?
President Obama attempted to jump phase three into phase four. For a while it seemed possible. But I do not see the tough choices being made, or vision to take down broken structures. Sadly, we will see our third phase. The time is just about right.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Gold backed currency is not viable
Constant volume asset-backed currency is deflationary
Broadly, any asset backed currency - asset availability will determine the amount of money in the system. So money supply will be limited to the extent we can find the asset - here - gold. Now,this is by no means a stable solution.
Store of value v/s transmitter of value
The real problem, I believe, is due to design of money. Money was designed as carrier of value not as a store of value. It was designed as a river not as a dam reservoir. The arguments for gold-backed currency stem from "store of value" side and arguments against it originate from "transmission of value" side. Inflation helps transmission but can potentially hinder "store of value" concept. Deflation helps "store of value" but can potentially hinder" transmission" concept.
In sum...
I believe these two functions are separate and must not be confused. We need a new design for money - one that can fit in both roles. Will someone open the financial innovation tool-box please? Anyone? Pandora?
Link
http://www.webofdebt.com/excerpts/chapter-37.php
Monday, October 12, 2009
Telecom Companies growth models
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
How Cities Develop?
I have put together some thoughts on How Cities develop? in the form of an idea-book. Please feel free to download it here.
Introduction
Real estate development in every city is unique. Still hidden within, are certain principles that are common. To understand it, we need to understand two central concepts. First, how town evolve and second how evolution happens within a town.
I propose a seven phase model explaining how a population surrounding a business or factory transforms into a town. Through the transformation we point to some important developments in terms of people and their work.
The idea book postulates a growth model called “Affinity Factor Model” to explain how localities develop within a town. “Affinity factors” are those that drive the citizens towards them – e.g. business district and schools are key affinity factor.
The models help us understand why airports, usually built outside city limits, attract residential populations. Or, on a lighter note, we can guess where a company will locate its office!
We also derive a method to understand relative pricing between different areas. Further, we look at fundamental ideas for knowing if house prices are higher.
I also propose a structure of a township centred around a workplace based on first principles.
How Cities Develop
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Media Pricing and Anti-Piracy
While anti-piracy proponents have a valid point of view, there is other side that needs to be fixed as well. We pay for the same content multiple times. I have bought same song (as part of same or various albums) multiple times.
Anti-piracy movement has one idea to sort out. What are customers paying for? Is it media (CD or DVD or tape or flash drive etc) or the song/serial/movie etc. Then we can ask why same movie can be priced differently on blue-ray disc, CD, or from the web or cable TV. This part is almost never part of the debate.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
A question on Currency Crisis
Most of the developed world currencies are facing very similar problems like US. Consumption driven economy is fed by low-cost debt. Significant percentage of population is old. As the credit crisis struck the demand for good plummeted. The over-all economic model seems weakened just like the US. The only thing stopping a dollar collapse is USD's world currency status. But then why have these other currencies not fallen. Is the USD holding these up?
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Some ideas on analysing Real Estate Developers
Real estate developers have been a significant part of value creation for investors. And they will continue to be. However, as times get difficult, it is important to pick the right developers to invest in. While these are logical, they are often ignored in my experience. I present an idea-Book looking into some key ideas while selecting successful real estate developers. Key points include:
- I believe first thing a developer must be sensitive to is business cycle. Irrational optimism leads to a fatal failure in preparing for eventual slowdown.
- Similarly, land bank quantity, quality and cost determine the future earning potential and growth of the developer.
- Developers’ also need an ability to manage through-cycle earnings for the company. In search of quick profits, developers often condemn the company to future revenue de-growth and lower or negative profitability.
- Cash flow management and debt structuring is other critical part of real estate business that can make or break the company.
- Lastly, I mention some ways in which real estate developers prevent value realisations for the listed entity.
- I hope these learning’s will be helpful. These do not comprise the complete list and must be used in conjunction with standard investment and valuation procedures and practices.
Please find the ebook enclosed below.
IdeaBook on Investing in Real Estate Developers
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Hotels: Part of Asset builder boom
Actually this is a perfect storm everywhere for hotels. Too much supply - and more coming online every day. Too much debt. And too few guests.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Decline of Alpha
Art of Startup: Lynn Terry on Pursuing Passion or Profits
- People start a new business without being financially secure. They may be passionate but bills and debt always mount. The first part of being entrepreneur is understanding finances and cash flows. If you cannot secure yourself financially, how will you secure your company?
- Even when they have financial security people often start a business they are not passionate about to make a "quick buck". Lack of passion of owner shows up pretty fast. That is why venture capitalists want to meet companies face-to-face. Such businesses often languish at the first dip.
You know how people always say, do what you love and the money will follow? I’ve probably even said that a time or two myself, but I’ve decided that it’s flawed…
Instead, do what makes the money and your passion will follow. I know that may sound like a contradiction, but follow along with me here.
My first business was an electronic repair shop. Not something I was particularly passionate about, but it paid the bills. I was passionate about having a family business and pursuing financial freedom, of course. And I enjoyed the work - it just wasn’t my “passion in life”. My next business included computer training and web development - helping others learn skills to start & grown their own business. Something I was definitely passionate about, but I didn’t really have the means to do it on any kind of large scale. Meaning I was basically helping one person or one business at a time. But those were the right choices at those times in my life, because the bills had to be paid and the children had to be raised. It wasn’t until my business saw a sustainable passive income that I had the financial freedom to really discover and pursue my passions.
It’s hard to even know what you’re passionate about when all you can think about is how you’re going to make the next mortgage payment, or put dinner on the table next week. Even worse is that nobody else will get it. If you’re working all the time, with no profit to show for it, your friends & family will tell you you’re nuts and tell you to go get a real job. But if you have money coming in, nobody will mess with you - and you’ll be free to really start exploring your options. My point here is that I don’t want you to feel discouraged if you’re just starting out, and you haven’t discovered your true passion yet. That’s okay. Try a few things, make some money first, and let it just come to you naturally.
The cool thing is that the internet provides you the opportunity to do both - to make money AND pursue your passions in life. My own online business allows me to work from home, and allows me both the time and money to work on a series of books I’ve always wanted to write. So I do that, plus give back to the Internet Marketing community, because I have a passive base income that pays the bills. The main source of my income being my affiliate sites and various affiliate promotions.
It took me years to find my place in it all, and create a vision of the lifestyle and future that I wanted - and a plan to fund it. But every single one of those years that I wasn’t 100% sure I was going in the right direction… I still earned a full-time income. Money is necessary - so pursue that first, and let the passion find you when you’re ready for it.
Trust me, it will happen when you’re less stressed about making money.
So get out there and make some money!
Best,p.s. If you need help making money online, join my group at our Internet Marketing Forum. I check in there daily myself, and would be happy to answer your questions, or share resources with you.
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